环球时报/加拿大《环球邮报》5月9日文章，原题：外长首次中国之行干系重大
20年前，当美国首次崛起为超级大国时，它利用影响力向那些需要其援助的国家推行一种政治和经济模式，最终创建了现在众所周知的“华盛顿共识”这种后冷战秩序。如今，有迹象表明中国将成为首个从当前经济危机中复苏的大经济体，此间许多评论家呼吁中国利用强大的经济实力扩大影响力。一些人认为，一种“北京共识”正在出现。
本周末，外交部长劳伦斯•坎农将首次对中国进行正式访问，而世界秩序的变化将是他需要谨记不忘的。加拿大能继续就人权和民主等问题向中国施压吗———这样做可能会损害与一个崛起中的超级大国本已紧张的双边关系。
有人说，过去30年里，中国一直追随西方世界。但现在，西方体制出现了大问题，新兴大国需要予以纠正。多年来，北京与被西方视为无赖国家的缅甸、苏丹和朝鲜等国做生意和交好，以此扩大影响力。但在当前中美一强一弱的形势下，北京可以在以前有可能被拒绝的地方争取朋友。
当牙买加今年资金吃紧时，该国向华盛顿和伦敦等传统盟友求助无果。它于是转向北京，后者很快提供了1.38亿美元贷款。近几个月，中国与俄罗斯、哈萨克斯坦、巴西和委内瑞拉签署了贷款换石油协议。它还与远至阿根廷这样的国家达成货币交换协定，这意味着外国政府首次将人民币作为美元的一种替代储备选择。
但一些观察家认为，尽管北京在扩大影响力，但它的行为跟以前无异，没有根本变化的迹象。华盛顿共识是由对自由市场改革的信念推动的。而中国的自由市场经济与专制政治体制的混合很难成为可以输出的类似政治模式。北京大学经济学教授迈克尔•佩蒂斯说：“不存在北京共识这种东西。即便有，奉行它的国家也不包括中国。”“实际上，（人民币货币交换）只是一种对外援助。他们会得到一些回报……这叫地缘政治。”
不论如何称呼中国日益上升的影响力，加拿大政策的批评者担忧的是，哈珀政府似乎未能及时理解正迅速改变的地缘政治的游戏规则。自哈珀先生2006年上任以来，加中关系一直困难重重，尽管政府最近表示有意改善与北京的关系。显然，加拿大还有很长的路要走。
有中国人说，现在，加拿大处在边缘。一般中国人都不记得有加拿大这么个国家了。在明天开始的4天中国之行中，坎农先生将着力改变这种局面。▲（作者马克•麦金龙，汪析译）
Much is at stake in Cannon China visit
‘Ordinary Chinese people do not remember that there is a country called Canada. You have no influence.’
MARK MACKINNON
Globe and Mail Update
May 8, 2009 at 6:46 PM EDT
BEIJING — Twenty years ago, as the United States first emerged as the world’s unchallenged superpower, it used its clout to force a political and economic model on countries that needed its aid, eventually creating a post-Cold-War order known as the Washington consensus.
Now, with several indicators suggesting that China will be the first major country to recover from the current economic crisis, many commentators here are calling for the country to use its strong economic hand to expand its influence. Some believe that a Beijing consensus could be what emerges.
The changing world order is something Foreign Minister Lawrence Cannon will need to keep in mind when he lands in China this weekend for his first official visit. Can Canada continue to press China on issues such as human rights and democracy when doing so might harm its already strained relationship with a rising superpower?
“For the past 30 years, China has kept following the Western world. But now, the system has some major problems in it, and new powers are needed to fix it,” said Huang Jisu, one of five Chinese intellectuals who co-authored the bestselling book Unhappy China, which calls on Beijing to use the economic crisis to establish itself as a leading power.
For years China has been expanding its influence by doing business and winning favour with countries such as Burma, Sudan and North Korea, which are considered pariah states in the West. But this moment of Chinese strength and U.S. weakness has allowed Beijing to win friends where previous overtures might have been rejected.
When Jamaica was strapped for cash this year, the country’s appeals for help went unanswered by its traditional allies in Washington and London. So it turned to Beijing, which quickly extended $138-million in loan packages.
In recent months, China has signed loans-for-oil deals with Russia, Kazakhstan, Brazil and Venezuela. It also entered into currency-swap agreements with countries as far away as Argentina, meaning foreign governments are for the first time accumulating reserves of the Chinese yuan mostly as an alternative to the U.S. dollar.
However, some observers argue that while Beijing is expanding its influence, its actions are business as usual, rather than evidence of a paradigm shift. For one thing, the Washington consensus was motivated by belief in free-market changes. China’s hybrid of a free-market economy coupled with an authoritarian political regime is hardly a political model that can be exported in the same way.
“There is no such thing as a Beijing consensus,” said Michael Pettis, an economics professor at Beijing University. “Or if there is one, the countries that are following it do not include China.
“You should really see [RMB currency swaps] as a form of foreign aid. Certain countries need to boost their [foreign exchange] reserves, and China is boosting their reserves. And they’re probably getting something back. … It’s called geopolitics.”
Whatever China’s growing influence is called, what worries critics of Canada’s policy is that Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s government seems slow to understand that the geopolitical rules of the game are changing fast. Canada-China relations have been rocky ever since Mr. Harper took office in 2006, although the government recently has given signals that it wants to improve ties with Beijing.
There’s clearly a long way to go.
“In the 1960s, when you had Pierre Trudeau, that was the best time for relations between our countries,” said Wang Xiaodong, another of the Unhappy China authors. “Now, Canada is on the outside. Ordinary Chinese people do not remember that there is a country called Canada. You have no influence.”
Mr. Cannon will try to change that during a four-day visit that begins tomorrow.
