20111117/每日油价预测为何不像以前那么准了?

世界日报/可能已有消费者查觉,有些加油站在午夜挂出的新油价,和权威网站及媒体事先预测的出现不一致。

以往预测多伦多油价相当公式化,首先是要等待供应该区域汽油的最大油商、及拥有Esso加油站的帝国石油公司(Imperial),在前一晚宣布次日的批发油价,其他加油站随后即根据该油价调整汽油零售价格,所以只要盯住帝国石油公司公布的批发价,即能预测到次日油价。

但是该公式化程序在几周前被打乱,因为帝国石油公司延迟宣布批发油价,迫使很多加油站必须等待更久,才能决定如何调整零售油价;En-Pro资深汽油市场顾问麦克奈表示,多伦多地区批发油价以往都一致,不过Esso加油站在10月25日改变这项定律。

麦克奈说,这种做法可让消费者享受到加油站之间竞价的一点点好处,但亦将令油价预测失准,他认为油商大概不乐意看到外界逐日准确预测次日油价,不过新做法对消费者应属有利。

Predicting gas prices leads to change

Richard Southern and 680News staff

TORONTO, Ont. – Over the last few days, 680News listeners have been calling in to the newsroom about a discrepancy between our gas price forecast and the actual price come midnight. So, we decided to look further into the matter.

It turns out, our attempt to help you find a window to fill up the tank for less has pushed oil companies to re-work how and when they change their prices.

Predicting gas prices in Toronto used to be rather formulaic. The biggest gas company in this region, Imperial Oil — who runs Esso stations — would set the trend for tomorrow’s price the evening before, and all other gas companies would follow along.

As a result, if you knew Imperial Oil’s price for oil, you would know tomorrow’s gas price in the GTA.

But several weeks ago, everything changed. It appears Imperial Oil delayed when they released their pricing, forcing other stations to wait longer before they could post a competing price.

“The wholesale prices in Toronto were always exactly the same, day after day. But, Oct. 25, Esso changed the rules,” Roger McKnight, one of En-Pro’s senior petroleum advisors, told 680News.

It meant a little more competition to benefit the consumer, but it made it more difficult for 680News to tell you where prices were going.

680News could have played a role in this since as of September, we became the second authority in Toronto to predict prices, and that might have been too much for the gas companies.

“I don’t think they like people predicting what the price is going to be,” McKnight said.

Here’s the good news: this is generally good for the wallet as it has sparked a price war in the GTA.

“I think 680News and En-Pro have changed the rules of the game to the consumers benefit,” he said. “It takes away the fences on the pricing, that’s for sure, this is a now a level playing field, it’s good the consumer.”