加拿大《环球邮报》10月17日文章:金融动荡在中国引发对改革的讨论 作者Geoffrey York译者朱庆和
中国领导人对美国的金融动荡没有公开表态，但从中国媒体可一窥幕后的辩论。亲市场的自由派正敦促中国继续推进经济改革，而其他人则利用危机，宣称应注重国家控制的中国体制的优越性。
这场辩论的到来正值该国关键时刻。当中国准备庆祝其最初迈向改革开放30周年之际，尚有许多改革议程有待完成:农村土地、能源价格、货币的自由兑换、银行等重要部门仍被国家控制。
金融危机正推动中国重新思考其未来。许多自由派担心中国会利用这场危机为借口，削弱改革进程。他们担心反改革势力可能以美国救市计划为例证，证明有必要保持国家对经济的绝对支配。由中国有影响的财经类杂志──《财经》主编胡舒立撰写的一篇社论说:“倘将此次美国在非常时期的救助举措误释为常规之举，动摇自由市场信念，则可能拖累中国朝向市场经济的改革进程。”
但其他许多中国评论家说，金融危机证明中国不应“盲目拥抱”自由主义。新华网上的一篇评论说:“自由市场体制的种种问题暴露无遗。中国应该从美国的危机当中吸取教训，做到谨慎行事。”
在中国的网站上，一些网民把危机视为中国崛起为超级大国的象征性时刻，就像第二次世界大战标志着美国崛起一样。一位中国网民写道:“这次经济危机是世界经济权力的重新分配。中国已准备好……一个新秩序。”
香港中文大学政治分析家威利·拉姆(Willy Lam)教授认为，金融危机将鼓励中国政府在今后两年维持现状，而不是推进改革。“中国政府正强调稳定和增长，而不是改革。”拉姆先生接受采访时表示，“中国领导层对当前现状满意。这证明了中国模式是正确的，他们相信谨慎政策是正确的。”
Meltdown boosts anti-Western forces in China
Media reflect behind-the-scenes struggle between pro-market liberals and old-guard opponents of reform
GEOFFREY YORK
October 17, 2008
BEIJING — For the hardliners in China’s Communist Party, the global financial crisis has been a golden opportunity to gloat about China’s rising power.
“China should no longer be sympathetic and kind toward the United States at this rare moment,” said a commentary this week in Ta Kung Pao, a newspaper in Hong Kong with close links to the Communist Party.
“It should seize the opportunity to teach the United States a lesson,” the newspaper declared. “At the very least, the United States should be made to suffer a little bit more, so that it will learn to be more modest and prudent in the future and treat other countries as equals.”
Since the United States could need financial help from China to get out of its crisis, China should use the chance to extract American concessions on key political issues such as Taiwan and Tibet, the newspaper added.
Although the newspaper is financed by Beijing, the commentary probably does not reflect the mainstream views of China’s Communist leaders. But it suggests how the financial crisis is boosting the confidence and influence of anti-Western forces in China, including the old-guard factions that are resisting free-market reforms.
While the Chinese leaders have been muted in their public response to the financial meltdown in the United States, a behind-the-scenes struggle can be glimpsed in the Chinese media. Pro-market liberals are urging Beijing to push ahead with more economic reforms, despite the crisis. Others are exploiting the crisis to proclaim the supremacy of the Chinese system, with its heavy state controls.
The debate comes at a critical time for the country. As it prepares to celebrate the 30th anniversary of its first steps toward free-market capitalism, China still has an unfinished agenda of incomplete reforms. Rural land is still not privately owned. Energy prices are set by the government. The nation’s currency is not freely traded. Key sectors such as banking are still dominated by state-controlled companies.
The financial crisis is prompting China to rethink its future. Many liberals are worried that China will use the crisis as an excuse to ditch the reform agenda. They fret that the anti-reform forces could cite the U.S. bailout plan as proof of the need for state dominance in the economy.
“If we take emergency action as normal practice – and second-guess our belief in the free market for China – we might delay China’s own market reform,” Hu Shuli, founding editor of Caijing, an influential Chinese financial magazine, said in an editorial this week.
“The current crisis is yet another test. Can we continue the reform? Can we draw a clear line between market and government? The answer will determine China’s future.”
A similar note was struck by Ha Jiming, chief economist of China International Capital Corp. “China’s future hinges on reforms,” he wrote this month. “Given the latest developments in the global economy, China’s reforms have come to a new starting point . . .”
But many other Chinese commentators said the financial crisis was evidence that China should not “blindly embrace” liberalism. “Many of the problems of the free-market system have been fully exposed,” said a commentary in Xinhua, the state news agency. “China should take a lesson from the American crisis and be cautious.”
On Chinese websites, some people are citing the crisis as the symbolic moment of China’s ascendancy to superpower status, just as the Second World War marked the ascendancy of the United States. “The economic crisis this time is a redistribution of the economic powers of the world,” one person wrote on a website. “China has to be prepared for … a new order.”
The Chinese media gave prominent coverage to a conference in Beijing this week where speakers attacked the United States and globalization in the wake of the financial crisis. One conference organizer said China should “play a leading role” in a “new financial structure” to replace the existing global system. Another participant called for a “multipolarized world,” – code for a system without U.S. dominance.
Willy Lam, a political analyst and professor at the Chinese University of Hong Kong, said the financial crisis will encourage the Chinese government to maintain the status quo – rather than pursue reforms – over the next two years.
“The Chinese leadership is putting its emphasis on stability and growth, not reform,” Mr. Lam said in an interview.
“The leadership is reasonably satisfied with the situation. It seems to have proven that the Chinese model is correct. It feels confident that the cautious policy is the right policy.”
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/LAC.20081017.CHINA17/TPStory/?query=chinese
