\u4f5c\u8005\uff1a\u82f1\u56fd\u300a\u91d1\u878d\u65f6\u62a5\u300b\u4e13\u680f\u4f5c\u5bb6\u5409\u8fea\u6069-\u62c9\u8d6b\u66fc(Gideon Rachman) <\/p>\n
\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u60f3\u8ba8\u8bba\u7f8e\u56fd\u8870\u843d\u7684\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u5fb7\u514b\u8428\u65af\u519c\u4e1a\u673a\u68b0\u5927\u5b66(Texas A&M)\u4f3c\u4e4e\u4e0d\u50cf\u4e00\u4e2a\u597d\u5730\u65b9\u3002\u76f8\u5bf9\u4e8e\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u5176\u5b83\u666e\u901a\u9662\u6821\uff0c\u8fd9\u6240\u5927\u5b66\u628a\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u6bd5\u4e1a\u751f\u76f4\u63a5\u8f93\u9001\u5230\u4e86\u519b\u961f\u3002\u8be5\u6821\u7684\u519b\u5b98\u8bad\u7ec3\u56e2\u884c\u8d70\u5728\u6821\u56ed\u91cc\u7684\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u603b\u4f1a\u8eab\u7740\u7b14\u633a\u7684\u5236\u670d\uff0c\u811a\u7a7f\u9f50\u819d\u7684\u76ae\u9774\uff0c\u5f7c\u6b64\u7528\u8f7b\u5feb\u7684\u201c\u4f60\u597d\u201d(howdy\uff0chow do you do\u7684\u65b9\u8a00)\u6253\u62db\u547c\u3002\u70e6\u607c\u7684\u81ea\u7701\u548c\u4fe1\u5fc3\u5371\u673a\u4e0d\u662f\u5fb7\u514b\u8428\u65af\u4eba\u7684\u7279\u70b9\u3002<\/p>\n
\u4f46\u6700\u8fd1\uff0c\u5fb7\u514b\u8428\u65af\u519c\u4e1a\u673a\u68b0\u5927\u5b66\u65af\u8003\u514b\u7f57\u592b\u7279\u56fd\u9645\u4e8b\u52a1\u5b66\u9662(Scowcroft Institute of International Affairs)\u4e3b\u529e\u4e86\u4e00\u6b21\u4f1a\u8bae\uff0c\u65e8\u5728\u8ba8\u8bba\u7f8e\u56fd\u60c5\u62a5\u90e8\u95e8\u6700\u65b0\u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u660e\u663e\u60b2\u89c2\u7684\u5168\u7403\u89c2\u70b9\u3002\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u5bb6\u60c5\u62a5\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a(National Intelligence Council)\u76d1\u7763\u7f8e\u56fd\u590d\u6742\u7684\u60c5\u62a5\u673a\u6784\u4f53\u7cfb\uff0c\u8be5\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a\u6bcf4\u5e74\u53d1\u8868\u4e00\u4efd\u5168\u7403\u8d8b\u52bf\u62a5\u544a\uff0c\u9012\u4ea4\u7f8e\u56fd\u65b0\u603b\u7edf\u3002<\/p>\n
\u8fd9\u4efd\u53d1\u8868\u4e8e11\u670820\u65e5\u7684\u6700\u65b0\u62a5\u544a\u5f15\u8d77\u4e86\u5168\u7403\u7684\u5173\u6ce8\u3002\u82f1\u56fd\u300a\u536b\u62a5\u300b(Guardian)\u7684\u5934\u7248\u8d6b\u7136\u5199\u7740\u201c2025\u5e74\uff1a\u7f8e\u56fd\u7edf\u6cbb\u5730\u4f4d\u7684\u7ed3\u675f\u201d\u3002\u8fd9\u4e00\u6b21\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6807\u9898\u57fa\u672c\u51c6\u786e\u3002\u5c31\u50cf\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u5bb6\u60c5\u62a5\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a\u5766\u7387\u6307\u51fa\u7684\u90a3\u6837\uff0c\u65b0\u62a5\u544a\u548c4\u5e74\u524d\u53d1\u8868\u7684\u62a5\u544a\u4e4b\u95f4\u201c\u6700\u5177\u620f\u5267\u6027\u7684\u533a\u522b\u201d\u5728\u4e8e\uff0c\u65b0\u62a5\u544a\u73b0\u5728\u9884\u6d4b\uff0c\u201c\u7f8e\u56fd\u5c06\u5728\u5168\u7403\u4e8b\u4ef6\u4e2d\u53d1\u6325\u91cd\u8981\u4f5c\u7528\uff0c\u4e0d\u8fc7\u7f8e\u56fd\u88ab\u89c6\u4e3a\u8bb8\u591a\u5168\u7403\u53c2\u4e0e\u8005\u4e4b\u4e00\u201d\u30024\u5e74\u524d\u53d1\u8868\u7684\u62a5\u544a\u66fe\u9884\u6d4b\u201c\u7f8e\u56fd\u5c06\u7ee7\u7eed\u5360\u636e\u7edf\u6cbb\u5730\u4f4d\u201d\u3002<\/p>\n
\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u5bb6\u60c5\u62a5\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a\u7684\u62a5\u544a\u4ee4\u4eba\u8b66\u9192\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u5b83\u6765\u81ea\u7f8e\u56fd\u5b89\u5168\u90e8\u95e8\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u3002\u4f46\u8fd9\u662f\u7f8e\u56fd\u66f4\u4e3a\u5e7f\u6cdb\u7684\u5b66\u672f\u8d8b\u52bf\u7684\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\uff1a\u201c\u65b0\u8870\u843d\u4e3b\u4e49\u201d(new declinism)\u3002\u8fd9\u4e00\u60c5\u7eea\u6807\u5fd7\u7740\u5f7b\u5e95\u544a\u522b\u5e03\u4ec0(Bush)\u65f6\u4ee3\u7684\u76db\u6c14\u51cc\u4eba\u548c\u201c\u5355\u6781\u65f6\u523b\u201d\u3002\u62a5\u544a\u5f00\u5934\u7684\u5047\u8bbe\u5c31\u662f\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u7f8e\u56fd\u4ecd\u662f\u5168\u7403\u6700\u4e3a\u5f3a\u5927\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\uff0c\u4f46\u5df2\u8fdb\u5165\u76f8\u5bf9\u8870\u843d\u8fc7\u7a0b\u3002<\/p>\n
\u4e09\u5927\u4e8b\u6001\u6ecb\u957f\u4e86\u65b0\u8870\u843d\u4e3b\u4e49\u3002\u9996\u5148\uff0c\u4f0a\u62c9\u514b\u548c\u963f\u5bcc\u6c57\u6218\u4e89\u7a81\u663e\u51fa\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u7edd\u5bf9\u519b\u4e8b\u4f18\u52bf\u6ca1\u6709\u81ea\u52a8\u8f6c\u5316\u4e3a\u653f\u6cbb\u80dc\u5229\u3002\u5176\u6b21\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u548c\u5370\u5ea6\u7684\u5d1b\u8d77\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u4f5c\u4e3a\u5168\u7403\u6700\u5927\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u7684\u65e5\u5b50\u5df2\u5c48\u6307\u53ef\u6570\u3002\u7b2c\u4e09\uff0c\u6b64\u6b21\u91d1\u878d\u5371\u673a\u652f\u6301\u4e86\u8fd9\u79cd\u770b\u6cd5\uff0c\u5373\u7f8e\u56fd\u6b63\u5165\u4e0d\u6577\u51fa\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u6a21\u5f0f\u51fa\u73b0\u4e86\u4e25\u91cd\u95ee\u9898\u3002<\/p>\n
\u8868\u8fbe\u8fd9\u4e00\u60b2\u89c2\u60c5\u7eea\u7684\u4e0d\u662f\u522b\u4eba\uff0c\u6b63\u662f\u5e03\u4f26\u7279-\u65af\u8003\u514b\u7f57\u592b\u7279(General Brent Scowcroft)\u5c06\u519b\uff0c\u4ed6\u56de\u5230\u4ee5\u4ed6\u7684\u540d\u5b57\u547d\u540d\u7684\u8fd9\u6240\u5b66\u9662\uff0c\u5728\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u5bb6\u60c5\u62a5\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a\u4f1a\u8bae\u4e0a\u81f4\u5f00\u5e55\u8bcd\u3002\u65af\u8003\u514b\u7f57\u592b\u7279\u5c06\u519b\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u51b7\u6218\u7ed3\u675f\u540e\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u53d1\u73b0\u81ea\u5df1\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u5f3a\u5927\u7684\u4e16\u754c\u5927\u56fd\uff0c\u8fd9 \u201c\u4ee4\u4eba\u9676\u9189\u201d\u3002\u4f46\u201c\u6211\u4eec\u52a8\u7528\u8fd9\u4e00\u5b9e\u529b\u4e00\u6bb5\u65f6\u671f\u540e\u5c31\u610f\u8bc6\u5230\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u90fd\u662f\u77ed\u6682\u7684\u201d\u3002<\/p>\n
\u8fd9\u79cd\u5bf9\u7f8e\u56fd\u5b9e\u529b\u5c40\u9650\u6027\u7684\u65b0\u8ba4\u8bc6\uff0c\u53cd\u6620\u5728\u4e86\u5f88\u591a\u65b0\u4e66\u548c\u6587\u7ae0\u4e2d\u3002\u6700\u5177\u5f71\u54cd\u529b\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u6cd5\u91cc\u5fb7-\u624e\u5361\u91cc\u4e9a(Fareed Zakaria)\u7684\u300a\u540e\u7f8e\u56fd\u4e16\u754c\u300b(The Post-American World)\uff0c\u636e\u8bf4\u8fd9\u662f\u5df4\u62c9\u514b-\u5965\u5df4\u9a6c(Barack Obama)\u4eca\u5e74\u8bfb\u8fc7\u7684\u552f\u4e00\u4e00\u672c\u5173\u4e8e\u5916\u4ea4\u4e8b\u52a1\u7684\u8457\u4f5c\u3002\u5c3d\u7ba1\u624e\u5361\u91cc\u4e9a\u7aed\u529b\u6307\u51fa\u4e2d\u56fd\u3001\u5370\u5ea6\u548c\u201c\u5176\u5b83\u56fd\u5bb6\u201d\u7684\u5d1b\u8d77\u4e0d\u4f1a\u5bf9\u7f8e\u56fd\u6784\u6210\u5a01\u80c1\uff0c\u4f46\u4e0d\u53ef\u907f\u514d\u7684\u7ed3\u8bba\u662f\uff0c\u5e03\u4ec0\u65f6\u4ee3\u662f\u7f8e\u56fd\u5b9e\u529b\u7684\u6700\u9ad8\u5cf0\u3002<\/p>\n
\u53e6\u5916\u4e00\u672c\u6293\u4f4f\u8fd9\u79cd\u65b0\u60c5\u7eea\u7684\u6709\u5f71\u54cd\u529b\u7684\u8457\u4f5c\uff0c\u662f\u5b89\u5fb7\u9c81-\u5df4\u585e\u7ef4\u5947(Andrew Bacevich)\u7684\u300a\u5b9e\u529b\u6781\u9650\u300b(The Limits of Power)\u3002\u5df4\u585e\u7ef4\u5947\u6559\u6388\u662f\u4e00\u4f4d\u4fdd\u5b88\u6d3e\u5386\u53f2\u5b66\u5bb6\u548c\u9000\u4f0d\u519b\u4eba\uff0c\u4ed6\u7684\u513f\u5b50\u5728\u4f0a\u62c9\u514b\u6218\u4e89\u4e2d\u9635\u4ea1\u3002\u4ed6\u63d0\u51fa\uff1a\u201c\u7f8e\u56fd\u5b9e\u529b\u2026\u2026\u4e0d\u8db3\u4ee5\u5b9e\u73b0\u7531\u72c2\u5984\u4e0e\u4f2a\u5584\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u91ce\u5fc3\u3002\u201d\u7f8e\u56fd\u5916\u4ea4\u5173\u7cfb\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a(Council of Foreign Relations)\u4e3b\u5e2d\u7406\u67e5\u5fb7-\u54c8\u65af(Richard Haass)\u582a\u79f0\u7f8e\u56fd\u5916\u4ea4\u653f\u7b56\u90e8\u95e8\u8d44\u683c\u6700\u8001\u7684\u4eba\u58eb\uff0c\u4ed6\u662f\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e3b\u5f20\u201c\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u5355\u6781\u65f6\u523b\u5df2\u7ed3\u675f\u201d\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u4eba\u7269\u3002<\/p>\n
\u4f46\u5c31\u50cf\u8fbe\u7279\u8305\u65af\u5b66\u9662(Dartmouth College)\u7684\u5a01\u5ec9-\u6c83\u5c14\u798f\u65af(William Wohlforth)\u5728\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u5bb6\u60c5\u62a5\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a\u4f1a\u8bae\u4e0a\u6240\u63d0\u9192\u7684\u90a3\u6837\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u4ee5\u524d\u4e5f\u7ecf\u5386\u8fc7\u8870\u843d\u4e3b\u4e49\u65f6\u671f\u3002\u73b0\u5728\u7684\u8fa9\u8bba\u8ba9\u4eba\u56de\u5fc6\u8d771988\u5e74\u4fdd\u7f57-\u80af\u5c3c\u8fea(Paul Kennedy)\u7684\u300a\u5927\u56fd\u7684\u5174\u8870\u300b(The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers)\u6240\u5f15\u53d1\u7684\u4e89\u8bba\u3002\u80af\u5c3c\u8fea\u6559\u6388\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u4ee5\u524d\u7684\u5927\u56fd\u90fd\u8d25\u4e8e\u201c\u5e1d\u56fd\u8fc7\u5ea6\u6269\u5f20\u201d\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u770b\u6cd5\u5f53\u65f6\u5728\u7f8e\u56fd\u5f15\u8d77\u6781\u5927\u53cd\u54cd\uff0c\u5f53\u65f6\u8bb8\u591a\u4eba\u5bf9\u91cc\u6839(Reagan)\u65f6\u4ee3\u7684\u9884\u7b97\u8d64\u5b57\u4ee5\u53ca\u65e5\u672c\u65e5\u76ca\u58ee\u5927\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b9e\u529b\u8868\u793a\u62c5\u5fc3\u3002<\/p>\n
\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u51b7\u6218\u5f97\u80dc\u3001\u65e5\u672c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f10\u5e74\u4e00\u8e76\u4e0d\u632f\u4ee5\u53ca\u514b\u6797\u987f\u65f6\u671f\u9ad8\u79d1\u6280\u4ea7\u4e1a\u7684\u84ec\u52c3\u53d1\u5c55\uff0c\u4ee4\u80af\u5c3c\u8fea\u6559\u6388\u4ee3\u8868\u7684\u201c\u8870\u843d\u4e3b\u4e49\u201d\u8fc5\u901f\u6d88\u5931\u3002\u8fd9\u4e3a\u7f8e\u56fd\u4fe1\u5fc3\u7684\u590d\u5174\u548c\u5e03\u4ec0\u603b\u7edf\u4efb\u671f\u5185\u7684\u72c2\u5984\u81ea\u5927\u5960\u5b9a\u4e86\u821e\u53f0\u3002<\/p>\n
\u73b0\u5728\u56de\u5fc6\u8d77\u6765\u6709\u70b9\u5947\u602a\uff0c\u4f46\u5728\u51b7\u6218\u521d\u671f\uff0c\u786e\u5b9e\u6709\u4e9b\u4eba\u62c5\u5fc3\uff0c\u82cf\u8054\u53ef\u80fd\u8d85\u8fc7\u7f8e\u56fd\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u8d8a\u5357\u6218\u4e89\u5f15\u53d1\u4e86\u7f8e\u56fd\u4eba\u7684\u4fe1\u5fc3\u5371\u673a\uff0c\u5f53\u65f6\u7406\u67e5\u5fb7-\u5c3c\u514b\u677e(Richard Nixon)\u8b66\u544a\u4ed6\u7684\u540c\u80de\u4eec\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u770b\u4e0a\u53bb\u53ef\u80fd\u50cf\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u201c\u53ef\u601c\u3001\u65e0\u52a9\u7684\u5de8\u4eba\u201d\u3002\u4e0a\u4e16\u7eaa80\u5e74\u4ee3\uff0c\u65e5\u672c\u6210\u4e3a\u7f8e\u56fd\u9738\u4e3b\u5730\u4f4d\u7684\u6700\u65b0\u6311\u6218\u8005\u3002\u73b0\u5728\u8f6e\u5230\u4e86\u4e2d\u56fd\u3002<\/p>\n
\u6c83\u5c14\u798f\u65af\u6559\u6388\u8fa9\u79f0\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u5bb6\u60c5\u62a5\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a\u7684\u62a5\u544a\u53cd\u6620\u4e86\u201c\u4e00\u79cd\u60c5\u7eea\u7684\u53d8\u5316\uff0c\u800c\u975e\u6839\u672c\u5c42\u9762\u7684\u5b9e\u529b\u8bc4\u4f30\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u201d\u3002\u6b63\u5982\u4ed6\u6240\u8a00\uff0c\u5d1b\u8d77\u7684\u5f3a\u56fd\u5e76\u975e\u603b\u80fd\u5b8c\u6210\u5d1b\u8d77\u8fc7\u7a0b\uff0c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b9e\u529b\u4e5f\u5e76\u975e\u603b\u4f1a\u8f6c\u5316\u4e3a\u653f\u6cbb\u5b9e\u529b\u3002<\/p>\n
\u786e\u5b9e\u5982\u6b64\u3002\u4f46\u6211\u4eec\u4ecd\u6709\u7406\u7531\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u65b0\u7684\u8870\u843d\u4e3b\u4e49\u53ef\u80fd\u5efa\u7acb\u5728\u6bd4\u4e4b\u524d\u7248\u672c\u66f4\u4e3a\u5065\u5168\u7684\u57fa\u7840\u4e0a\u3002\u4e2d\u56fd\u62e5\u6709\u6301\u7eed\u4e14\u5bcc\u6709\u6d3b\u529b\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\u7684\u8bb0\u5f55\uff0c\u800c\u82cf\u8054\u4ece\u672a\u6709\u8fc7\u3002\u800c\u4e14\uff0c\u4e0e\u65e5\u672c\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u76f8\u5bf9\u5c0f\u56fd\u76f8\u6bd4\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u89c4\u6a21\u4ee4\u5176\u6210\u4e3a\u4e00\u4f4d\u66f4\u53ef\u4fe1\u7684\u6311\u6218\u8005\u3002<\/p>\n
\u8fd9\u4e00\u6b21\u786e\u5b9e\u611f\u89c9\u4e0d\u540c\u3002\u4e0d\u8fc7\uff0c\u4e8b\u60c5\u603b\u662f\u5982\u6b64\uff0c\u4e0d\u662f\u5417\uff1f<\/p>\n
\u8bd1\u8005\/\u6881\u8273\u88f3<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
\u4f5c\u8005\uff1a\u82f1\u56fd\u300a\u91d1\u878d\u65f6\u62a5\u300b\u4e13\u680f\u4f5c\u5bb6\u5409\u8fea\u6069-\u62c9\u8d6b\u66fc(Gideon Rachman) \u5982\u679c\u4f60\u60f3\u8ba8\u8bba\u7f8e\u56fd\u8870\u843d\u7684\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u5fb7\u514b\u8428\u65af\u519c\u4e1a\u673a\u68b0\u5927\u5b66(Texas A&M)\u4f3c\u4e4e\u4e0d\u50cf\u4e00\u4e2a\u597d\u5730\u65b9\u3002\u76f8\u5bf9\u4e8e\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u5176\u5b83\u666e\u901a\u9662\u6821\uff0c\u8fd9\u6240\u5927\u5b66\u628a\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u6bd5\u4e1a\u751f\u76f4\u63a5\u8f93\u9001\u5230\u4e86\u519b\u961f\u3002\u8be5\u6821\u7684\u519b\u5b98\u8bad\u7ec3\u56e2\u884c\u8d70\u5728\u6821\u56ed\u91cc\u7684\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u603b\u4f1a\u8eab\u7740\u7b14\u633a\u7684\u5236\u670d\uff0c…
Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[10],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.jackjia.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9224"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.jackjia.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.jackjia.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.jackjia.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.jackjia.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=9224"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/blog.jackjia.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9224\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.jackjia.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=9224"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.jackjia.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=9224"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.jackjia.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=9224"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}