{"id":86534,"date":"2025-04-27T08:53:55","date_gmt":"2025-04-27T13:53:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blog.jackjia.com\/?p=86534"},"modified":"2025-04-28T08:56:19","modified_gmt":"2025-04-28T13:56:19","slug":"20250427-%e5%a6%82%e4%bd%95%e8%a7%a3%e8%af%bb2025%e5%b9%b4%e5%8a%a0%e6%8b%bf%e5%a4%a7%e5%a4%a7%e9%80%89%e6%9c%9f%e9%97%b4%e7%9a%84%e6%b0%91%e6%84%8f%e8%b0%83%e6%9f%a5%ef%bc%9f","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blog.jackjia.com\/?p=86534","title":{"rendered":"20250427\/\u5982\u4f55\u89e3\u8bfb2025\u5e74\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u5927\u9009\u671f\u95f4\u7684\u6c11\u610f\u8c03\u67e5\uff1f"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u661f\u661f\u751f\u6d3b\u6377\u514b\u4f73\/\u5927\u9009\u8fdb\u5165\u5012\u8ba1\u65f6\uff0c\u8054\u90a6\u5404\u515a\u6d3e\u9886\u5bfc\u4eba\u516c\u5f00\u53d1\u8868\u653f\u7eb2\uff0c\u5728\u6295\u7968\u7ed3\u675f\u524d\u5927\u529b\u5ba3\u4f20\u548c\u5f3a\u8c03\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u4e00\u4e9b\u91cd\u8981\u627f\u8bfa\u2014\u2014\u4e0e\u6b64\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u4e4b\u95f4\u4e5f\u51fa\u73b0\u4e86\u4e00\u4e9b\u4e92\u76f8\u653b\u51fb\u7684\u573a\u9762\uff0c\u5404\u7c7b\u6c11\u610f\u8c03\u67e5\u4e5f\u7eb7\u7eb7\u51fa\u7089\uff0c\u4f46\u5e94\u8be5\u5982\u4f55\u89e3\u8bfb\uff1f<\/p>\n<p>\u76ca\u666e\u7d22\u516c\u5171\u4e8b\u52a1\u90e8\uff08Ipsos Public Affairs\uff09\u9ad8\u7ea7\u526f\u603b\u88c1\u8096\u6069\u00b7\u8f9b\u666e\u68ee(Sean Simpson)\u5728\u73af\u7403\u65b0\u95fb\u64b0\u6587\u8bf4\uff0c\u6c11\u610f\u8c03\u67e5\u5728\u6bcf\u6b21\u7ade\u9009\u6d3b\u52a8\u4e2d\u90fd\u53d1\u6325\u7740\u6838\u5fc3\u4f5c\u7528\u3002\u5b83\u4eec\u8ba9\u6211\u4eec\u4e86\u89e3\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u9009\u6c11\u7684\u5fc3\u6001\u4ee5\u53ca\u4ed6\u4eec\u5bf9\u7ade\u9009\u6d3b\u52a8\u7684\u53cd\u5e94\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u867d\u7136\u6c11\u8c03\u6db5\u76d6\u4e86\u5404\u79cd\u5404\u6837\u7684\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u4f46\u5927\u591a\u6570\u4eba\uff08\u5305\u62ec\u5a92\u4f53\uff09\u4e3b\u8981\u5173\u6ce8\u7684\u662f\u201c\u8d5b\u9a6c\u5f0f\u7ade\u8d5b\u201d\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u4ee5\u4e86\u89e3\u54ea\u4e00\u65b9\u5728\u6c11\u4f17\u4e2d\u652f\u6301\u7387\u9886\u5148\uff0c\u5e76\u9884\u6d4b\u8c01\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u5728\u9009\u4e3e\u65e5\u83b7\u80dc\u3002<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/blog.jackjia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/poll250427.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" src=\"http:\/\/blog.jackjia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/poll250427.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"716\" height=\"300\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-86535\" srcset=\"https:\/\/blog.jackjia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/poll250427.jpg 716w, https:\/\/blog.jackjia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/poll250427-300x126.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 716px) 100vw, 716px\" 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href=\"http:\/\/blog.jackjia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/poll250427_2.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" src=\"http:\/\/blog.jackjia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/poll250427_2.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"624\" height=\"368\" class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-86536\" srcset=\"https:\/\/blog.jackjia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/poll250427_2.jpg 624w, https:\/\/blog.jackjia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/poll250427_2-300x177.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 624px) 100vw, 624px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><strong>**\u8d62\u5f97\u9009\u7968\u5e76\u4e0d\u603b\u662f\u610f\u5473\u7740\u8d62\u5f97\u9009\u4e3e<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u6700\u540e\uff0c\u5168\u56fd\u666e\u9009\u7ed3\u679c\u5e76\u4e0d\u603b\u80fd\u9884\u6d4b\u8c01\u5c06\u8d62\u5f97\u6700\u591a\u5e2d\u4f4d\u3002<\/p>\n<p>2019\u5e74\u548c2021\u5e74\uff0c\u4fdd\u5b88\u515a\u8d62\u5f97\u4e86\u66f4\u591a\u9009\u7968\uff0c\u4f46\u81ea\u7531\u515a\u8d62\u5f97\u4e86\u66f4\u591a\u5e2d\u4f4d\u3002\u8fd9\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\u4fdd\u5b88\u515a\u7684\u9009\u7968\u6548\u7387\u4f4e\u4e0b\uff1a\u8be5\u515a\u5728\u8428\u65af\u5580\u5f7b\u6e29\u7701\u548c\u963f\u5c14\u4f2f\u5854\u7701\u4ee5\u8f83\u5927\u4f18\u52bf\u83b7\u80dc\uff0c\u4f46\u5728\u5b89\u5927\u7565\u7701\u5374\u4ee5\u5fae\u5f31\u4f18\u52bf\u843d\u8d25\u3002\u5927\u91cf\u7684\u9009\u7968\u8f6c\u5316\u4e3a\u66f4\u5c11\u7684\u5e2d\u4f4d\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6df1\u5165\u7814\u7a76\u6c11\u8c03\u673a\u6784\u53d1\u5e03\u7684\u6570\u636e\u8868\uff0c\u4e86\u89e3\u591a\u4f26\u591a\u5468\u8fb9905\u5730\u533a\u3001\u5b89\u5927\u7565\u7701\u897f\u5357\u90e8\u548c\u9b41\u5317\u514b\u5e02\u7b49\u5173\u952e\u5730\u533a\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u3002\u7531\u4e8e\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5730\u533a\u62e5\u6709\u8bb8\u591a\u7ade\u4e89\u6fc0\u70c8\u7684\u5e2d\u4f4d\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5730\u533a\u7684\u5c40\u52bf\u5c06\u6bd4\u5168\u56fd\u666e\u9009\u7ed3\u679c\u66f4\u80fd\u51b3\u5b9a\u9009\u4e3e\u7ed3\u679c\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>**\u6295\u7968\u7387\u4e5f\u5f88\u91cd\u8981<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u6c11\u610f\u8c03\u67e5\u6700\u5927\u7684\u7f3a\u9677\u6216\u8bb8\u5728\u4e8e\uff0c\u5b83\u8c03\u67e5\u7684\u662f\u666e\u901a\u6c11\u4f17\uff0c\u4f46\u5927\u7ea660%\u523070%\u7684\u4eba\u4f1a\u53bb\u6295\u7968\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u5927\u591a\u6570\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u4eba\u4f1a\u544a\u8bc9\u6c11\u610f\u8c03\u67e5\u673a\u6784\u4ed6\u4eec\u6253\u7b97\u6295\u7968\u3002\u4e3a\u4e86\u89e3\u51b3\u8fd9\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u4e00\u4e9b\u6c11\u610f\u8c03\u67e5\u673a\u6784\u4f7f\u7528\u6295\u7968\u7387\u6a21\u578b\u6765\u9884\u6d4b\u8c01\u4f1a\u53bb\u6295\u7968\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u8fd9\u90e8\u5206\u9009\u6c11\u5c06\u5982\u4f55\u5f71\u54cd\u9009\u4e3e\u7ed3\u679c\u2014\u2014\u5728\u7f8e\u56fd\u5927\u9009\u4e2d\uff0c\u8fd9\u7edd\u5bf9\u81f3\u5173\u91cd\u8981\uff0c\u4f46\u5728\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6a21\u578b\u5df2\u88ab\u8bc1\u660e\u6ca1\u6709\u5fc5\u8981\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u7684\u8054\u90a6\u6c11\u8c03\u76f8\u5f53\u51c6\u786e\u3002\u4f46\u8fd9\u5e76\u4e0d\u610f\u5473\u7740\u4f60\u5e94\u8be5\u653e\u677e\u8b66\u60d5\u3002\u4ed4\u7ec6\u7814\u7a76\u6c11\u8c03\uff0c\u5e76\u8fdb\u884c\u6df1\u5165\u8c03\u67e5\u3002\u5173\u6ce8\u6c11\u8c03\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u3001\u65b9\u6cd5\u3001\u6837\u672c\u91cf\u548c\u6743\u91cd\u3002\u4fdd\u6301\u6000\u7591\u6001\u5ea6\uff0c\u4f46\u4e0d\u8981\u8ba9\u7ed3\u679c\u5de6\u53f3\u4f60\u5bf9\u6c11\u8c03\u672c\u8eab\u7684\u770b\u6cd5\u3002\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u5bf9\u6570\u636e\u80cc\u540e\u7684\u79d1\u5b66\u6027\u611f\u5230\u6ee1\u610f\uff0c\u90a3\u5c31\u6d88\u5316\u4e00\u4e0b\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c\u5e76\u5e86\u5e78\u81ea\u5df1\u6bd4\u4ee5\u524d\u66f4\u4e86\u89e3\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u4eba\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u65b0\u95fb\u6765\u6e90\uff1a<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-embedded-content\" data-secret=\"LcE8SEk3Rq\"><p><a href=\"https:\/\/globalnews.ca\/news\/11149229\/how-to-make-sense-of-polls-2025-canadian-election\/\">How to make sense of the opinion polls\u00a0during the 2025 Canadian election<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><iframe class=\"wp-embedded-content\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts\" security=\"restricted\" style=\"position: absolute; clip: rect(1px, 1px, 1px, 1px);\" title=\"&#8220;How to make sense of the opinion polls\u00a0during the 2025 Canadian election&#8221; &#8212; Global News\" src=\"https:\/\/globalnews.ca\/news\/11149229\/how-to-make-sense-of-polls-2025-canadian-election\/embed\/#?secret=CpjIIp1cV9#?secret=LcE8SEk3Rq\" data-secret=\"LcE8SEk3Rq\" width=\"600\" height=\"338\" frameborder=\"0\" marginwidth=\"0\" marginheight=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u661f\u661f\u751f\u6d3b\u6377\u514b\u4f73\/\u5927\u9009\u8fdb\u5165\u5012\u8ba1\u65f6\uff0c\u8054\u90a6\u5404\u515a\u6d3e\u9886\u5bfc\u4eba\u516c\u5f00\u53d1\u8868\u653f\u7eb2\uff0c\u5728\u6295\u7968\u7ed3\u675f\u524d\u5927\u529b\u5ba3\u4f20\u548c\u5f3a\u8c03\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u4e00\u4e9b\u91cd\u8981\u627f\u8bfa\u2014\u2014\u4e0e\u6b64\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u4e4b\u95f4\u4e5f\u51fa\u73b0\u4e86\u4e00\u4e9b\u4e92\u76f8\u653b\u51fb\u7684\u573a\u9762\uff0c\u5404\u7c7b\u6c11\u610f\u8c03\u67e5\u4e5f\u7eb7\u7eb7\u51fa\u7089\uff0c\u4f46\u5e94\u8be5\u5982\u4f55\u89e3\u8bfb\uff1f \u76ca\u666e\u7d22\u516c\u5171\u4e8b\u52a1\u90e8\uff08Ipsos Public Affairs\uff09\u9ad8\u7ea7\u526f\u603b\u88c1\u8096\u6069\u00b7\u8f9b\u666e\u68ee(Sean S&#8230;<br \/><a class=\"read-more-button\" href=\"https:\/\/blog.jackjia.com\/?p=86534\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":86535,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[3],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.jackjia.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/86534"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.jackjia.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.jackjia.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.jackjia.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.jackjia.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=86534"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/blog.jackjia.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/86534\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":86537,"href":"https:\/\/blog.jackjia.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/86534\/revisions\/86537"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.jackjia.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/86535"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.jackjia.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=86534"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.jackjia.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=86534"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.jackjia.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=86534"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}