{"id":84463,"date":"2025-01-29T18:22:18","date_gmt":"2025-01-29T23:22:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blog.jackjia.com\/?p=84463"},"modified":"2025-01-29T18:22:18","modified_gmt":"2025-01-29T23:22:18","slug":"20250129-%e5%8a%a0%e6%8b%bf%e5%a4%a7%e5%a4%ae%e8%a1%8c%e5%b0%86%e5%88%a9%e7%8e%87%e9%99%8d%e8%87%b33-%e7%bb%8f%e6%b5%8e%e5%ad%a6%e5%ae%b6%e8%ae%a4%e4%b8%ba%e4%bb%8d%e5%a4%aa%e9%ab%98","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blog.jackjia.com\/?p=84463","title":{"rendered":"20250129\/\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u592e\u884c\u5c06\u5229\u7387\u964d\u81f33% \u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u8ba4\u4e3a\u4ecd\u592a\u9ad8"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\u6377\u514b\u4f73 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src=\"http:\/\/blog.jackjia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/boc250129_1.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"565\" height=\"447\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-84464\" srcset=\"https:\/\/blog.jackjia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/boc250129_1.jpg 565w, https:\/\/blog.jackjia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/boc250129_1-300x237.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 565px) 100vw, 565px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u592e\u884c\u884c\u957f\u8482\u592b\u00b7\u9ea6\u514b\u52d2\u59c6(Tiff Macklem)\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u81ea8\u6708\u4ee5\u6765\u901a\u80c0\u4e00\u76f4\u4fdd\u6301\u5728\u592e\u884c2%\u7684\u76ee\u6807\u9644\u8fd1\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u5bb6\u5ead\u652f\u51fa\u6b63\u5728\u56de\u5347\uff0c\u4f46\u4e0e\u7f8e\u56fd\u53d1\u751f\u8d38\u6613\u51b2\u7a81\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u7ed9\u7ecf\u6d4e\u548c\u901a\u80c0\u524d\u666f\u8499\u4e0a\u4e86\u9634\u5f71\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u9ea6\u514b\u52d2\u59c6\u8bf4\uff0c\u4e00\u573a\u6301\u4e45\u4e14\u5e7f\u6cdb\u7684\u51b2\u7a81\u5c06\u4e25\u91cd\u635f\u5bb3\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6d3b\u52a8\u3002\u4e0e\u6b64\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u8fdb\u53e3\u5546\u54c1\u6210\u672c\u4e0a\u5347\u5c06\u76f4\u63a5\u7ed9\u901a\u80c0\u5e26\u6765\u4e0a\u884c\u538b\u529b\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>**\u5173\u7a0e\u80fd\u8d77\u4ec0\u4e48\u4f5c\u7528\uff1f<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u7f8e\u56fd\u603b\u7edf\u5510\u7eb3\u5fb7\u00b7\u7279\u6717\u666e\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u4ed6\u6700\u65e9\u5c06\u4e8e\u672c\u5468\u516d\u5bf9\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u548c\u58a8\u897f\u54e5\u5f81\u653625%\u7684\u5173\u7a0e\u3002\u592e\u884c\u5df2\u7ecf\u5f00\u59cb\u7814\u7a76\u4e0e\u7f8e\u56fd\u7206\u53d1\u8d38\u6613\u6218\u7684\u4e0d\u540c\u60c5\u666f\u53ca\u5176\u540e\u679c\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u592e\u884c\u5728\u8d27\u5e01\u653f\u7b56\u8bc4\u4f30\u4e2d\u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u6a21\u578b\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u548c\u7f8e\u56fd\u90fd\u5bf9\u5f7c\u6b64\u5f81\u653625%\u7684\u5173\u7a0e\uff0c\u5c06\u5bfc\u81f4\u4eca\u5e74\u7684\u7b2c\u4e00\u5e74GDP\u4e0b\u964d2.5%\uff0c\u7b2c\u4e8c\u5e74GDP\u4e0b\u964d1.5%\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6839\u636e\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6570\u5b57\uff0c\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u5c06\u9677\u5165\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8870\u9000\u3002\u592e\u884c\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u8d38\u6613\u51b2\u7a81\u5c06\u5bf9\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u7684\u51fa\u53e3\u548c\u8fdb\u53e3\u4ea7\u751f\u8d1f\u9762\u5f71\u54cd\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u592e\u884c\u9884\u6d4b\uff0c25%\u7684\u5173\u7a0e\u5c06\u4f7f\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u7684\u8d38\u6613\u5e73\u8861\u6076\u5316\uff0c\u5e76\u53ef\u80fd\u5bfc\u81f4\u52a0\u5143\u8d2c\u503c\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u7531\u4e8e\u5bf9\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u5546\u54c1\u7684\u9700\u6c42\u51cf\u5c11\uff0c\u51fa\u53e3\u5546\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u51cf\u5c11\u4ea7\u91cf\u5e76\u88c1\u5458\u3002\u8fd9\u4f1a\u5bfc\u81f4\u5546\u4e1a\u6295\u8d44\u4e0b\u964d\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u5927\u5e45\u964d\u4f4e\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u7684GDP\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u201c\u4e0d\u5e78\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u5173\u7a0e\u610f\u5473\u7740\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8fd0\u884c\u6548\u7387\u964d\u4f4e\u2014\u2014\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u751f\u4ea7\u548c\u6536\u5165\u6bd4\u6ca1\u6709\u5173\u7a0e\u65f6\u8981\u5c11\uff0c\u201d\u9ea6\u514b\u52d2\u59c6\u8bf4\u3002\u201c\u8d27\u5e01\u653f\u7b56\u65e0\u6cd5\u62b5\u6d88\u8fd9\u4e00\u70b9\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u80fd\u505a\u7684\u5c31\u662f\u5e2e\u52a9\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8c03\u6574\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\u9ea6\u514b\u83b1\u59c6\u8865\u5145\u8bf4\uff0c\u592e\u884c\u53ea\u6709\u4e00\u79cd\u653f\u7b56\u5de5\u5177\uff0c\u5373\u5229\u7387\uff0c\u5b83\u65e0\u6cd5\u540c\u65f6\u89e3\u51b3\u4ea7\u51fa\u75b2\u8f6f\u548c\u901a\u80c0\u4e0a\u5347\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u9ea6\u514b\u52d2\u59c6\u5728\u6e25\u592a\u534e\u4e0e\u8bb0\u8005\u4e3e\u884c\u7684\u65b0\u95fb\u53d1\u5e03\u4f1a\u4e0a\u8868\u793a\uff1a\u201c\u8fd9\u5bf9\u8d27\u5e01\u653f\u7b56\u6765\u8bf4\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u590d\u6742\u7684\u51b2\u51fb\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u589e\u957f\u5c06\u4f1a\u51cf\u5f31\uff0c\u901a\u80c0\u5c06\u4f1a\u66f4\u9ad8\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u5c06\u8bc4\u4f30\u8fd9\u4e24\u8005\u7684\u76f8\u5bf9\u6743\u91cd\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u592e\u884c\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u58f0\u660e\u548c\u884c\u957f\u7684\u5f00\u573a\u767d\u4e2d\u7f3a\u5c11\u5bf9\u672a\u6765\u5229\u7387\u8d70\u52bf\u7684\u4efb\u4f55\u6307\u5bfc\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u201c\u5b58\u5728\u5f88\u591a\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\uff0c\u63d0\u4f9b\u6307\u5bfc\u4f3c\u4e4e\u4e0d\u592a\u6709\u7528\uff0c\u201d\u9ea6\u514b\u52d2\u59c6\u8865\u5145\u9053\u3002\u201c\u6211\u4eec\u4e0d\u77e5\u9053\u7f8e\u56fd\u4f1a\u505a\u4ec0\u4e48\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u6211\u4eec\u77e5\u9053\u66f4\u591a\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u4e5f\u5fc5\u987b\u505a\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u5de5\u4f5c\u6765\u5f04\u6e05\u695a\u8fd9\u5c06\u5982\u4f55\u5728\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4e2d\u53d1\u6325\u4f5c\u7528\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n<p><strong>**\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u8ba4\u4e3a\u5229\u7387\u4ecd\u7136\u592a\u9ad8<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u201c\u5229\u7387\u4ecd\u7136\u592a\u9ad8\uff01\u201dCIBC Economics\u9996\u5e2d\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u827e\u5f17\u91cc\u00b7\u7533\u83f2\u5c14\u5fb7\uff08Avery Shenfeld\uff09\u5728\u4e00\u4efd\u62a5\u544a\u4e2d\u8868\u793a\u3002\u201c\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u592e\u884c\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u63a5\u4e0b\u6765\u4f1a\u53d1\u751f\u4ec0\u4e48\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/blog.jackjia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/boc250129_2.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" src=\"http:\/\/blog.jackjia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/boc250129_2.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"734\" height=\"350\" class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-84465\" srcset=\"https:\/\/blog.jackjia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/boc250129_2.jpg 916w, https:\/\/blog.jackjia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/boc250129_2-300x143.jpg 300w, https:\/\/blog.jackjia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/boc250129_2-768x366.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 734px) 100vw, 734px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u4ed6\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u592e\u884c\u7684\u884c\u52a8\u610f\u5473\u7740\u672a\u6765\u8981\u8c28\u614e\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u5c1a\u4e0d\u6e05\u695a\u4e2d\u6027\u5229\u7387\u5728\u54ea\u91cc\uff0c\u201c\u4ee5\u53ca\u5229\u7387\u5fc5\u987b\u964d\u5230\u591a\u4f4e\u624d\u80fd\u63d0\u4f9b\u4ecd\u7136\u9700\u8981\u7684\u523a\u6fc0\u201d\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u653f\u7b56\u5236\u5b9a\u8005\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u589e\u957f\u548c\u6d88\u8d39\u6b63\u5728\u56de\u5347\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u660e\u5e74\u7684\u6269\u5f20\u5c06\u8d85\u51fa\u6f5c\u529b\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u7533\u83f2\u5c14\u5fb7\u8868\u793a\uff1a\u201c\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u5224\u65ad\u662f\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u4e94\u5e74\u671f\u62b5\u62bc\u8d37\u6b3e\u5728\u5185\u7684\u5229\u7387\u4ecd\u7136\u8fc7\u9ad8\uff0c\u65e0\u6cd5\u5e26\u6765\u5fc5\u8981\u7684\u63d0\u632f\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\u9274\u4e8e\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u592e\u884c\u5c06\u52b3\u52a8\u529b\u5e02\u573a\u63cf\u8ff0\u4e3a\u201c\u75b2\u8f6f\u201d\uff0c\u5e76\u8868\u793a\u901a\u80c0\u201c\u63a5\u8fd1\u201d2%\u7684\u76ee\u6807\uff0c\u4ed6\u8ba4\u4e3a\u653f\u7b56\u5236\u5b9a\u8005\u4eca\u5e74\u5c06\u9700\u8981\u518d\u964d\u606f75\u4e2a\u57fa\u70b9\uff0c\u8fd9\u5c06\u4f7f\u5229\u7387\u964d\u81f32.25%\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5728\u5173\u7a0e\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u7533\u83f2\u5c14\u5fb7\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u901a\u80c0\u7684\u4efb\u4f55\u4e0a\u5347\u90fd\u5c06\u53d7\u5230\u201c\u6682\u65f6\u201d\u7684\u6253\u51fb\uff0c\u4f46\u589e\u957f\u5c06\u53d7\u5230\u201c\u5b9e\u8d28\u6027\u7684\u6253\u51fb\u201d\u3002<\/p>\n<p>Rosenberg Research &#038; Associates Inc.\u521b\u59cb\u4eba\u517c\u603b\u88c1\u5927\u536b\u00b7\u7f57\u68ee\u4f2f\u683c\uff08David Rosenberg\uff09\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u672a\u6765\u5e02\u573a\u9884\u8ba13\u6708\u4efd\u518d\u6b21\u964d\u606f\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u4ec5\u4e3a60%\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u7f57\u68ee\u4f2f\u683c\u5728\u7ed9\u5ba2\u6237\u7684\u4e00\u4efd\u62a5\u544a\u4e2d\u8868\u793a\uff1a\u201c\u5230\u5e74\u5e95\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u9884\u8ba1\u9694\u591c\u5229\u7387\u5c06\u4ece\u76ee\u524d\u76843%\u964d\u81f32.5%\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\u8499\u7279\u5229\u5c14\u94f6\u884c\u9996\u5e2d\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u9053\u683c\u62c9\u65af\u00b7\u6ce2\u7279\uff08Douglas Porter\uff09\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u5728\u8d38\u6613\u6218\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u592e\u884c\u6700\u7ec8\u5c06\u4e0d\u5f97\u4e0d\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u964d\u4f4e\u653f\u7b56\u5229\u7387\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4ed6\u5728\u4e00\u4efd\u62a5\u544a\u4e2d\u8868\u793a\uff1a\u201c\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u592e\u884c\u4eca\u5929\u7684\u4e3e\u63aa\u53ef\u4ee5\u88ab\u89c6\u4e3a\u4e3a\u53ef\u80fd\u7206\u53d1\u7684\u8d38\u6613\u6218\u98ce\u66b4\u505a\u51c6\u5907\u3002\u4e0b\u4e00\u6b65\u663e\u7136\u53d6\u51b3\u4e8e\u8d38\u6613\u65b9\u9762\u7684\u8fdb\u5c55\uff1b\u6211\u4eec\u6000\u7591\uff0c\u867d\u7136\u592e\u884c\u6700\u521d\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u5bf9\u8d38\u6613\u6218\u505a\u51fa\u8c28\u614e\u53cd\u5e94\uff0c\u4f46\u6700\u7ec8\u5c06\u88ab\u8feb\u524a\u51cf\u6bd4\u5e02\u573a\u76ee\u524d\u9884\u671f\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u8d44\u91d1\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\u591a\u4f26\u591a\u9053\u660e\u94f6\u884c(TD Bank)\u9ad8\u7ea7\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u8a79\u59c6\u65af\u00b7\u5965\u5170\u591a(James 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more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":84465,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[3],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.jackjia.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/84463"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.jackjia.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.jackjia.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.jackjia.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.jackjia.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=84463"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/blog.jackjia.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/84463\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":84466,"href":"https:\/\/blog.jackjia.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/84463\/revisions\/84466"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.jackjia.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/84465"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.jackjia.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=84463"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.jackjia.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=84463"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.jackjia.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=84463"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}