{"id":78176,"date":"2024-03-04T15:51:37","date_gmt":"2024-03-04T20:51:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blog.jackjia.com\/?p=78176"},"modified":"2024-03-04T15:51:37","modified_gmt":"2024-03-04T20:51:37","slug":"20240304-%e4%bf%9d%e5%91%bd%e8%a6%81%e7%b4%a7%ef%bc%81%e6%b0%91%e8%b0%83%e6%98%be%e7%a4%ba42%e7%9a%84%e5%8a%a0%e6%8b%bf%e5%a4%a7%e4%ba%ba%e4%bc%9a%e8%b7%a8%e5%a2%83%e6%b1%82%e5%8c%bb","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blog.jackjia.com\/?p=78176","title":{"rendered":"20240304\/\u4fdd\u547d\u8981\u7d27\uff01\u6c11\u8c03\u663e\u793a42%\u7684\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u4eba\u4f1a\u8de8\u5883\u6c42\u533b"},"content":{"rendered":"

\uff08\u661f\u661f\u751f\u6d3b\/\u6377\u514b\u4f73\uff09\u5728\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u6301\u7eed\u5e94\u5bf9\u6025\u8bca\u5ba4\u7b49\u5f85\u65f6\u95f4\u5ef6\u957f\u548c\u4eba\u5458\u914d\u5907\u6311\u6218\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u4e00\u9879\u65b0\u7684\u6c11\u610f\u8c03\u67e5\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c\u8bb8\u591a\u4eba\u613f\u610f\u5357\u4e0b\u5bfb\u6c42\u53ca\u65f6\u7684\u533b\u7597\u4fdd\u5065\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u8fd9\u610f\u5473\u7740\u81ea\u638f\u8170\u5305\u3002<\/p>\n

\u636e\u73af\u7403\u65b0\u95fb\u62a5\u9053\uff0c\u76ca\u666e\u7d22(Ipsos)\u4e13\u95e8\u4e3a\u73af\u7403\u65b0\u95fb\u8fdb\u884c\u7684\u6c11\u610f\u8c03\u67e5\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c42\uff05\u7684\u53d7\u8bbf\u8005\u613f\u610f\u524d\u5f80\u7f8e\u56fd\uff0c\u5e76\u5728\u9700\u8981\u65f6\u4eb2\u81ea\u652f\u4ed8\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u5e38\u89c4\u533b\u7597\u4fdd\u5065\u8d39\u7528\u3002\u4e0e2023\u5e741\u6708\u76f8\u6bd4\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u6570\u5b57\u4e0a\u5347\u4e8610\u4e2a\u767e\u5206\u70b9\u3002<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

38%\u7684\u53d7\u8bbf\u8005\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u5c06\u524d\u5f80\u7f8e\u56fd\u5e76\u4eb2\u81ea\u652f\u4ed8\u7d27\u6025\u62a4\u7406\u8d39\u7528\uff08\u6bd4\u4e00\u5e74\u524d\u589e\u52a0\u4e869\u4e2a\u767e\u5206\u70b9\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n

\u76ca\u666e\u7d22\u516c\u5171\u4e8b\u52a1\u526f\u603b\u88c1Sean Simpson\u8bf4\uff1a\u201c\u6211\u8ba4\u4e3a\u8fd9\u79cd\u589e\u52a0\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u4eba\u5bf9\u533b\u7597\u4fdd\u5065\u7cfb\u7edf\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u5931\u671b\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201c\u4eba\u4eec\u62c5\u5fc3\u7684\u4e0d\u662f\u62a4\u7406\u8d28\u91cf\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u53ca\u65f6\u83b7\u5f97\u62a4\u7406\u7684\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u8fd9\u610f\u5473\u7740\u5728\u6025\u8bca\u5ba4\u7b49\u5f85\u65f6\u95f4\u3001\u7b49\u5f85\u770b\u4e13\u5bb6\u3001\u9884\u7ea6\u3001\u7b5b\u67e5\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u6709\u5f88\u5927\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\u4eba\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u4ed6\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u5728\u5176\u4ed6\u5730\u65b9\uff08\u4f8b\u5982\u7f8e\u56fd\uff09\u83b7\u5f97\u8fd9\u9879\u670d\u52a1\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u8003\u8651\u8fd9\u6837\u505a\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n

\u76ca\u666e\u7d22\u6c11\u610f\u8c03\u67e5\u662f\u5728\u5404\u7701\u7ee7\u7eed\u9762\u4e34\u5bb6\u5ead\u533b\u751f\u77ed\u7f3a\u3001\u624b\u672f\u7b49\u5f85\u65f6\u95f4\u5ef6\u957f\u548c\u6025\u8bca\u5ba4\u79ef\u538b\u60c5\u51b5\u589e\u52a0\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u8fdb\u884c\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n

\u536b\u751f\u90e8\u957f\u9a6c\u514b\u00b7\u970d\u5170\u5fb7\uff08Mark Holland\uff09\u5728\u5468\u4e00\u7684\u5a92\u4f53\u4f1a\u8bae\u4e0a\u53d1\u8868\u8bb2\u8bdd\uff0c\u88ab\u95ee\u53ca\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u4eba\u524d\u5f80\u7f8e\u56fd\u5bfb\u6c42\u533b\u7597\u7684\u503e\u5411\u65f6\uff0c\u4ed6\u56de\u7b54\u8bf4\uff0c\u201c\u663e\u7136\uff0c\u79c1\u4eba\u62a4\u7406\u4e0d\u662f\u7b54\u6848\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201c\u4e3a\u4e86\u6446\u8131\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u5904\u5883\u800c\u4ed8\u51fa\u4ee3\u4ef7\uff0c\u4f1a\u5728\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e2d\u9020\u6210\u53ef\u6015\u7684\u5f0a\u75c5\u3002\u56e0\u4e3a\u8fd9\u610f\u5473\u7740\u79c1\u4eba\u627f\u8fd0\u4eba\u5c06\u63a5\u624b\u6700\u6709\u5229\u53ef\u56fe\u7684\u6848\u4ef6\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u4f7f\u516c\u5171\u7cfb\u7edf\u88ab\u638f\u7a7a\uff0c\u201d\u4ed6\u8bf4\u3002\u201c\u8fd9\u662f\u6211\u4eec\u4e0d\u80fd\u5141\u8bb8\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n

\u4ed6\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u7b49\u5f85\u90fd\u662f\u4e3a\u4e86\u9009\u62e9\u6027\u624b\u672f\u6216\u975e\u7d27\u6025\u60c5\u51b5\uff0c\u5e76\u6566\u4fc3\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u4eba\u201c\u4fdd\u6301\u8010\u5fc3\u201d\u3002\u201c\u6211\u77e5\u9053\u8fd9\u5f88\u96be\uff0c\u4f46\u6211\u4eec\u6b63\u5728\u52aa\u529b\u786e\u4fdd\u89e3\u51b3\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5065\u5eb7\u4eba\u529b\u95ee\u9898\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n

Simpson\u8bf4\uff0c\u533b\u7597\u4fdd\u5065\u538b\u529b\u5f88\u5927\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\u6765\u81ea\u5927\u6d41\u884c\u7684\u540e\u9057\u75c7\u3002<\/p>\n

\u201c\u81ea\u5927\u6d41\u884c\u4ee5\u6765\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u770b\u5230\u533b\u7597\u4fdd\u5065\u7cfb\u7edf\u5728\u8bb8\u591a\u65b9\u9762\u90fd\u5904\u4e8e\u56f0\u5883\u4e4b\u4e2d\u3002\u800c\u7cfb\u7edf\u6b63\u5728\u7ee7\u7eed\u74e6\u89e3\uff0c\u201d\u4ed6\u8bf4\u3002<\/p>\n

\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u8054\u90a6\u653f\u5e9c\u4e8e2023\u5e742\u6708\u5411\u5404\u7701\u548c\u5730\u533a\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u4e00\u9879\u4e3a\u671f10\u5e74\u4ef7\u503c1,961\u4ebf\u5143\u7684\u5065\u5eb7\u8d44\u91d1\u534f\u8bae\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u5305\u62ec462\u4ebf\u5143\u7684\u65b0\u8d44\u91d1\u3002<\/p>\n

\u622a\u81f3\u5468\u4e00\uff0c\u9664\u9b41\u5317\u514b\u7701\u5916\uff0c\u6240\u6709\u7701\u4efd\u548c\u5730\u533a\u5747\u539f\u5219\u4e0a\u540c\u610f\u8be5\u5065\u5eb7\u534f\u8bae\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4e0a\u4e2a\u6708\uff0c\u5b89\u5927\u7565\u7701\u662f\u6700\u65b0\u4e00\u4e2a\u7b7e\u7f72\u4e8631\u4ebf\u52a0\u5143\u533b\u7597\u4fdd\u5065\u8d44\u91d1\u534f\u8bae\u7684\u7701\u4efd\uff0c\u8be5\u534f\u8bae\u5c06\u4f7f\u8be5\u7701\u96c7\u7528\u66f4\u591a\u533b\u7597\u4fdd\u5065\u4eba\u5458\u3001\u5904\u7406\u624b\u672f\u79ef\u538b\u95ee\u9898\u5e76\u5347\u7ea7\u6570\u5b57\u6570\u636e\u7cfb\u7edf\u3002<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

\u6839\u636e\u76ca\u666e\u7d22\u7684\u6c11\u610f\u8c03\u67e5\uff0c\u5bf9\u4e8e\u8fd9\u7b14\u8d44\u91d1\uff0c\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u4eba\u6709\u5f88\u591a\u610f\u89c1\u3002<\/p>\n

\u8d85\u8fc7\u5341\u5206\u4e4b\u56db\u7684\u53d7\u8bbf\u8005\u8ba4\u4e3a\u5404\u7701\u5e94\u8be5\u4ece\u8054\u90a6\u653f\u5e9c\u83b7\u5f97\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u533b\u4fdd\u8d44\u91d1\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u4ed6\u4eec\u5e94\u8be5\u51b3\u5b9a\u5982\u4f55\u82b1\u8d39\u8fd9\u7b14\u94b1\u3002\u4e0e\u5b89\u5927\u7565\u7701\u5c45\u6c11\uff0837%\uff09\u76f8\u6bd4\uff0c\u9b41\u5317\u514b\u7701\u5c45\u6c11\uff0853%\uff09\u66f4\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u540c\u610f\u8fd9\u4e00\u89c2\u70b9\u3002<\/p>\n

\u6b64\u5916\uff0c58\uff05\u7684\u53d7\u8bbf\u8005\u5efa\u8bae\u5404\u7701\u5e94\u5411\u8054\u90a6\u653f\u5e9c\u63d0\u4ea4\u4e00\u4efd\u8be6\u7ec6\u8ba1\u5212\uff0c\u6982\u8ff0\u5176\u6539\u5584\u533b\u7597\u4fdd\u5065\u670d\u52a1\u7684\u6218\u7565\uff0c\u4ee5\u6362\u53d6\u589e\u52a0\u8d44\u91d1\u3002<\/p>\n

\u201c\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u4eba\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u76f8\u4fe1\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u94b1\u6839\u672c\u4e0d\u662f\u89e3\u51b3\u529e\u6cd5\uff0c\u201dSimpson\u8bf4\u3002\u201c\u6211\u4eec\u4e00\u76f4\u5728\u533b\u4fdd\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e0a\u6295\u5165\u66f4\u591a\u8d44\u91d1\u2026\u2026\u4f46\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u4eba\u5e76\u6ca1\u6709\u56e0\u4e3a\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6295\u8d44\u800c\u5f97\u5230\u4efb\u4f55\u6539\u5584\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n

Simpson\u8bf4\uff0c\u8bb8\u591a\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u4eba\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u5404\u7701\u5e94\u5bf9\u8d44\u91d1\u8fdb\u884c\u66f4\u6709\u9488\u5bf9\u6027\u7684\u63a7\u5236\uff0c\u5c06\u5176\u5206\u914d\u7ed9\u7279\u5b9a\u804c\u80fd\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u51cf\u5c11\u6025\u8bca\u5ba4\u7b49\u5f85\u65f6\u95f4\u548c\u89e3\u51b3\u624b\u672f\u79ef\u538b\u95ee\u9898\u3002<\/p>\n

\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u4ed6\u5f3a\u8c03\u8fd9\u7b14\u8d44\u91d1\u4e0d\u5e94\u8be5\u53ea\u662f\u4e00\u5f20\u201c\u7a7a\u767d\u652f\u7968\u201d\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u4eba\u8ba4\u4e3a\u89e3\u51b3\u65b9\u6848\u5230\u76ee\u524d\u4e3a\u6b62\u8fd8\u6ca1\u6709\u53d1\u6325\u4f5c\u7528\u3002<\/p>\n

\u201c\u9700\u8981\u6709\u95ee\u8d23\u5236\uff0c\u9700\u8981\u6709\u900f\u660e\u5ea6\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u9700\u8981\u77e5\u9053\u94b1\u53bb\u54ea\u513f\u4e86\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u9700\u8981\u80fd\u591f\u8861\u91cf\u8fd9\u4e9b\u94b1\u5728\u6539\u5584\u7cfb\u7edf\u65b9\u9762\u53d6\u5f97\u7684\u8fdb\u5c55\uff0c\u201d\u4ed6\u5f3a\u8c03\u3002<\/p>\n

\u79c1\u4eba\u533b\u7597\u4fdd\u5065\u7684\u5174\u8d77<\/p>\n

\u76ca\u666e\u7d22\u6c11\u610f\u8c03\u67e5\u8fd8\u8c03\u67e5\u4e86\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u4eba\u5bf9\u533b\u7597\u4fdd\u5065\u79c1\u6709\u5316\u7684\u6001\u5ea6\uff0c\u8fd9\u662f\u5b89\u7701\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u591a\u5730\u63a2\u7d22\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u6982\u5ff5\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5728\u6c11\u610f\u8c03\u67e5\u4e2d\uff0c63%\u7684\u53d7\u8bbf\u8005\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u652f\u6301\u4e3a\u6709\u80fd\u529b\u8d1f\u62c5\u7684\u4eba\u63d0\u4f9b\u79c1\u4eba\u533b\u7597\u4fdd\u5065\u300260%\u7684\u4eba\u8868\u793a\u4ed6\u4eec\u5c06\u652f\u6301\u79c1\u4eba\u63d0\u4f9b\u516c\u5171\u8d44\u52a9\u7684\u533b\u7597\u670d\u52a1\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5b89\u7701\u6b63\u8ba1\u5212\u901a\u8fc7\u8d44\u52a9\u8bca\u6240\u8fdb\u884c\u66f4\u591a\u767d\u5185\u969c\u624b\u672f\u3001MRI\u548cCT\u626b\u63cf\u3001\u7ed3\u80a0\u955c\u68c0\u67e5\u3001\u9acb\u5173\u8282\u548c\u819d\u5173\u8282\u7f6e\u6362\u672f\u4ee5\u53ca\u5176\u4ed6\u624b\u672f\u6765\u6269\u5927\u79c1\u4eba\u63d0\u4f9b\u7684\u516c\u5171\u533b\u7597\u4fdd\u5065\u670d\u52a1\uff0c\u4ee5\u51cf\u8f7b\u533b\u9662\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u538b\u529b\u3002<\/p>\n

\u201c\u968f\u7740\u65f6\u95f4\u7684\u63a8\u79fb\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5f00\u59cb\u770b\u5230\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u591a\u7684\u4eba\u63a5\u53d7\u79c1\u4eba\u89e3\u51b3\u65b9\u6848\u8fdb\u5165\u533b\u7597\u4fdd\u5065\u7cfb\u7edf\uff0c\u201dSimpson\u89e3\u91ca\u9053\u3002\u201c\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u4eba\u4f1a\u652f\u6301\u5168\u9762\u5411\u79c1\u4eba\u533b\u7597\u4fdd\u5065\u8fc7\u6e21\u5417\uff1f\u4e0d\u3002\u4f46\u662f\u4ed6\u4eec\u652f\u6301\u516c\u5171\u8d44\u52a9\u7684\u79c1\u4eba\u63d0\u4f9b\u67d0\u4e9b\u670d\u52a1\u5417\uff1f\u7edd\u5bf9\u662f\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n

Simpson\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u589e\u52a0\u79c1\u4eba\u533b\u7597\u4fdd\u5065\u7684\u76ee\u6807\u662f\u51cf\u8f7b\u6574\u4e2a\u533b\u7597\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u4e00\u4e9b\u538b\u529b\uff0c\u4ed6\u76f8\u4fe1\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u4eba\u4f1a\u63a5\u53d7\u8fd9\u4e2a\u60f3\u6cd5\u3002<\/p>\n

\u8bb8\u591a\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u4eba\u4e5f\u5bf9\u865a\u62df\u62a4\u7406\u7684\u65e5\u76ca\u666e\u53ca\u6301\u4e50\u89c2\u6001\u5ea6\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u8d8b\u52bf\u81ea\u5927\u6d41\u884c\u7206\u53d1\u4ee5\u6765\u52a0\u901f\u4e86\u3002<\/p>\n

\u6c11\u610f\u8c03\u67e5\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c\u7edd\u5927\u591a\u6570\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u4eba\uff0879\uff05\uff09\u652f\u6301\u6269\u5927\u5bb6\u5ead\u533b\u751f\u63d0\u4f9b\u7684\u865a\u62df\u62a4\u7406\u670d\u52a1\u3002<\/p>\n

Simpson\u6307\u51fa\uff1a\u201c\u75ab\u60c5\u53d1\u751f\u4e86\u5f88\u5927\u53d8\u5316\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u4e2d\u7684\u8bb8\u591a\u4eba\u4e60\u60ef\u4e86\u901a\u8fc7Zoom\u6216\u7535\u8bdd\u54a8\u8be2\u533b\u7597\u4fdd\u5065\u4e13\u4e1a\u4eba\u5458\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n

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