\u4f5c\u8005\uff1a\u7f57\u6770?\u963f\u5c14\u7279\u66fc(Roger Altman)\u4e3a\u82f1\u56fd\u300a\u91d1\u878d\u65f6\u62a5\u300b\u64b0\u7a3f 2008-09-22 <\/p>\n
\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u573a\u72b6\u51b5\u73b0\u5df2\u964d\u81f31932\u5e74\u94f6\u884c\u4e1a\u5012\u95ed\u4ee5\u6765\u7684\u6700\u4f4e\u70b9\u3002\u572896\u4e2a\u5c0f\u65f6\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u91cc\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u76ee\u7779\u4e863\u8d77\u65e0\u6cd5\u60f3\u8c61\u7684\u4e8b\u4ef6\u3002\u7f8e\u56fd\u7b2c\u56db\u5927\u5238\u5546\u96f7\u66fc\u5144\u5f1f(Lehman Brothers)\u7533\u8bf7\u7834\u4ea7\u3002\u4e00\u591c\u4e4b\u95f4\uff0c\u6700\u8d1f\u76db\u540d\u7684\u516c\u53f8\u7f8e\u6797(Merrill Lynch)\u88ab\u8feb\u5c06\u81ea\u5df1\u5356\u7ed9\u7f8e\u56fd\u94f6\u884c(Bank of America)\u3002\u8feb\u4e8e\u5e02\u573a\u538b\u529b\uff0c\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8(Fed)\u88ab\u8feb\u65a5\u8d44850\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u63a5\u7ba1\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u9645\u96c6\u56e2(AIG)\uff0c\u4ee5\u907f\u514d\u8fd9\u5bb6\u6700\u5927\u7684\u4fdd\u9669\u516c\u53f8\u9677\u4e8e\u7834\u4ea7\u3002<\/p>\n
\u800c\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u8fd9\u4e00\u5207\uff0c\u8ddd\u8054\u90a6\u653f\u5e9c\u6551\u52a9\u623f\u5229\u7f8e(Fannie Mae)\u548c\u623f\u5730\u7f8e(Freddie Mac)\u7684\u884c\u52a8\u4ec5\u4e24\u5468\uff0c\u8ddd\u8d1d\u5c14\u65af\u767b\u57ae\u53f0\u4e5f\u53ea\u67093\u4e2a\u6708\u3002\u4e16\u754c\u5404\u5730\u7684\u5e02\u573a\u53c2\u4e0e\u8005\u88ab\u8fd9\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u7834\u4ea7\u6848\u60ca\u5f97\u76ee\u77aa\u53e3\u5446\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u5df2\u4fe1\u5fc3\u5c3d\u5931\uff0c\u53d6\u800c\u4ee3\u4e4b\u7684\u662f\u524d\u6240\u672a\u6709\u7684\u6050\u60e7\u611f\u3002\u8fd9\u5c31\u662f\u8d37\u6b3e\u51bb\u7ed3\u3001\u5168\u7403\u5e02\u573a\u51fa\u73b0\u66b4\u8dcc\u7684\u539f\u56e0\u3002<\/p>\n
\u73b0\u5728\uff0c\u6bcf\u4e2a\u4eba\u90fd\u60f3\u95ee\u540c\u6837\u7684\u95ee\u9898\uff1a\u4e0a\u8ff0\u60c5\u51b5\u4f1a\u6076\u5316\u81f3\u4f55\u79cd\u5883\u5730\uff1f\u8fd9\u79cd\u4fe1\u5fc3\u7f3a\u5931\u5728\u81ea\u6211\u5e94\u9a8c\uff0c\u5e76\u5371\u53ca\u5176\u5b83\u91d1\u878d\u673a\u6784\u3002\u6bcf\u5929\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u516c\u53f8\u5728\u8d44\u672c\u5e02\u573a\u4e0a\u4e3a\u81ea\u8eab\u8fdb\u884c\u518d\u878d\u8d44\u3002\u5b83\u4eec\u7684\u547d\u8fd0\u53d6\u51b3\u4e8e\u8d37\u6b3e\u673a\u6784\u7684\u4fe1\u5fc3\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u8fd9\u79cd\u4fe1\u5fc3\u6d88\u5931\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u5b83\u4eec\u7684\u507f\u4ed8\u80fd\u529b\u5c31\u4f1a\u53d7\u5230\u5a01\u80c1\u3002\u73b0\u72b6\u5c31\u662f\u5982\u6b64\u3002<\/p>\n
\u8fd9\u79cd\u72b6\u51b5\u5df2\u4f7f\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u548c\u7f8e\u56fd\u8d22\u653f\u90e8\u9677\u5165\u4e00\u79cd\u8fdb\u9000\u7ef4\u8c37\u7684\u5883\u5730\u3002\u67d0\u79cd\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0a\u8bb2\uff0c\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u4efb\u52a1\u5728\u4e8e\u4fdd\u62a4\u91d1\u878d\u4f53\u7cfb\u7684\u7a33\u5b9a\u3002\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u7b56\u5212\u4e86\u5bf9\u8d1d\u5c14\u65af\u767b\u7684\u6551\u52a9\uff0c\u5e76\u5411\u623f\u5229\u7f8e\u548c\u623f\u5730\u7f8e\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u7d27\u6025\u4fe1\u8d37\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u5b83\u5224\u65ad\uff0c\u91d1\u878d\u4f53\u7cfb\u53ef\u80fd\u65e0\u6cd5\u627f\u53d7\u201c\u4e24\u623f\u201d\u7684\u5d29\u6e83\u3002\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u62e5\u6709\u5411\u5176\u5b83\u673a\u6784\u63d0\u4f9b\u65e0\u9650\u63f4\u52a9\u7684\u6cd5\u5f8b\u6388\u6743\u3002<\/p>\n
\u4f46\u5728\u5b9e\u9645\u4e2d\uff0c\u63d0\u4f9b\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u6551\u52a9\u662f\u5b58\u5728\u754c\u9650\u7684\uff1b\u5982\u679c\u903e\u8d8a\u8fd9\u6761\u754c\u9650\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u5728\u901a\u80c0\u3001\u6c47\u7387\u548c\u4fe1\u5fc3\u65b9\u9762\u90fd\u53ef\u80fd\u5f15\u53d1\u53cd\u4f5c\u7528\u3002\u8fd9\u5c31\u662f\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u4e0a\u5468\u672b\u62d2\u7edd\u5411\u96f7\u66fc\u548c\u7f8e\u6797\u63d0\u4f9b\u76f4\u63a5\u6551\u52a9\u7684\u539f\u56e0\u3002\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u5224\u65ad\uff0c\u91d1\u878d\u4f53\u7cfb\u80fd\u633a\u8fc7\u96f7\u66fc\u7834\u4ea7\uff0c\u5e76\u51b3\u5b9a\u5fc5\u987b\u5bf9\u63f4\u52a9\u884c\u4e3a\u7684\u89c4\u6a21\u52a0\u4ee5\u9650\u5236\u3002\u5f88\u660e\u663e\uff0c\u5b83\u4e5f\u4e0d\u60f3\u62ef\u6551AIG\u3002<\/p>\n
\u54ea\u4e9b\u6253\u51fb\u662f\u91d1\u878d\u4f53\u7cfb\u53ef\u4ee5\u627f\u53d7\u7684\uff0c\u54ea\u4e9b\u6253\u51fb\u53ef\u80fd\u5f15\u53d1\u5d29\u76d8\uff0c\u8ba9\u5f53\u5c40\u5bf9\u8fd9\u4e00\u70b9\u505a\u51fa\u5224\u65ad\u4f9d\u7136\u6781\u4e3a\u56f0\u96be\u3002\u662f\u5426\u5141\u8bb8\u6700\u5927\u7684\u4fdd\u9669\u516c\u53f8\u7834\u4ea7\uff0c\u662f\u5426\u968f\u540e\u4f1a\u51fa\u73b0\u591a\u7c73\u8bfa\u6548\u5e94\uff0c\u5f53\u5c40\u5728\u505a\u5224\u65ad\u65f6\u5e76\u6ca1\u6709\u5148\u4f8b\u53ef\u4f9d\u3002\u6700\u7ec8\uff0c\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u89c1\u8bc1\u4e86\u592a\u591a\u7684\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u98ce\u9669\uff0c\u4e8e\u662f\u6539\u5f26\u6613\u8f99\uff0c\u5bf9AIG\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u5e72\u9884\u3002<\/p>\n
\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u548c\u8d22\u653f\u90e8\u80fd\u5426\u7ee7\u7eed\u8fdb\u884c\u8fd9\u79cd\u6781\u4e3a\u75db\u82e6\u7684\u9010\u6848\u5224\u65ad\u4ecd\u672a\u53ef\u77e5\u3002\u5982\u679c\u88ab\u8feb\u5728\u5ba1\u614e\u63f4\u52a9\u4e0e\u62ef\u6551\u91d1\u878d\u4f53\u7cfb\u4e4b\u95f4\u505a\u51fa\u9009\u62e9\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u5fc5\u987b\u9009\u62e9\u540e\u8005\u3002\u6b63\u5982\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u524d\u4e3b\u5e2d\u4fdd\u7f57?\u6c83\u5c14\u514b(Paul Volcker)\u66fe\u5efa\u8bae\u8fc7\u7684\uff0c\u5bf9\u94f6\u884c\u4e1a\u548c\u8bc1\u5238\u7cfb\u7edf\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u9700\u8981\u4e00\u4e2a\u5e9e\u5927\u7684\u6e05\u503a\u4fe1\u6258\u516c\u53f8(Resolution Trust Corporation)\u5f0f\u7684\u89e3\u51b3\u65b9\u6848\u3002<\/p>\n
\u8fd9\u53ef\u80fd\u6d89\u53ca\u5236\u5b9a\u6cd5\u5f8b\u6765\u6e05\u6d17\u8fd9\u4e9b\u673a\u6784\uff1a\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u4ee5\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u503a\u4f5c\u4e3a\u4ea4\u6362\u6761\u4ef6\uff0c\u6536\u8d2d\u5b83\u4eec\u7684\u4e0d\u826f\u62b5\u62bc\u8d37\u6b3e\u53ca\u5176\u5b83\u8d44\u4ea7\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u673a\u6784\u968f\u540e\u624d\u4f1a\u8d8b\u7a33\uff0c\u867d\u7136\u7eb3\u7a0e\u4eba\u627f\u62c5\u7684\u4ee3\u4ef7\u4f1a\u975e\u5e38\u5de8\u5927\uff0c\u5373\u4fbf\u5728\u653f\u5e9c\u9010\u6b65\u6062\u590d\u51fa\u552e\u8fd9\u7c7b\u8d44\u4ea7\u540e\u4e5f\u4f1a\u5982\u6b64\u3002\u4f46\u5982\u6709\u5fc5\u8981\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u8fd9\u4e2a\u4ee3\u4ef7\u662f\u5fc5\u987b\u4ed8\u51fa\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n
\u8fd9\u5c06\u88ab\u89c6\u4e3a\u73b0\u4ee3\u53f2\u4e0a\u6700\u5927\u7684\u76d1\u7ba1\u5931\u8d25\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u673a\u6784\u4f7f\u7528\u7684\u6760\u6746\u7ea7\u522b\u4f7f\u4e4b\u6781\u4e3a\u8106\u5f31\u30022007\u5e74\u4e2d\u671f\uff0c\u5927\u578b\u5238\u5546\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u6760\u6746\u6bd4\u7387\u4e3a27:1\uff0c\u4f46\u672a\u53d7\u5230\u4efb\u4f55\u5ba1\u614e\u76d1\u7ba1\u673a\u6784\u7684\u76d1\u7ba1\u3002\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0c\u5b83\u4eec\u5728\u81ea\u6211\u76d1\u7ba1\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u900f\u660e\u5ea6\u7684\u7f3a\u5931\u4ee4\u4eba\u9707\u60ca\u3002\u8bb8\u591a\u5927\u578b\u8d37\u6b3e\u673a\u6784\u5e76\u672a\u900f\u9732\u8868\u5916\u98ce\u9669\u3002\u5728\u67d0\u4e9b\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u5b83\u4eec\u81ea\u5df1\u4e5f\u4e0d\u7406\u89e3\u8fd9\u4e9b\u98ce\u9669\u3002\u800c\u66f4\u4e3a\u6839\u672c\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5141\u8bb8\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u5e9e\u5927\u7684\u91d1\u878d\u4f53\u7cfb\u5728\u6b63\u5e38\u7684\u94f6\u884c\u4e1a\u7f51\u7edc\u4e4b\u5916\u53d1\u5c55\u8d77\u6765\u3002\u8fd9\u4e2a\u4f53\u7cfb\u5305\u62ec\u6295\u884c\u548c\u62b5\u62bc\u8d37\u6b3e\u91d1\u878d\u516c\u53f8\u7b49\u3002\u5b83\u65e2\u4e0d\u53d7\u76d1\u7ba1\u53c8\u4e0d\u900f\u660e\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u6760\u6746\u6bd4\u4f8b\u5b9e\u5728\u592a\u9ad8\u3002\u4f46\u662f\u57289\u5bb6\u76f8\u5bf9\u72ec\u7acb\u5e76\u4e14\u5f88\u5927\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0a\u65e0\u6548\u7684\u91d1\u878d\u76d1\u7ba1\u673a\u6784\u773c\u76ae\u5e95\u4e0b\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u98ce\u9669\u88ab\u5ffd\u7565\u4e86\u3002\u5c31\u662f\u8bf4\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\u4e00\u76f4\u7ef4\u6301\u5230\u8fd9\u4e2a\u4f53\u7cfb\u5d29\u584c\u3002<\/p>\n
\u6211\u4eec\u4ece\u8fd9\u6b21\u91d1\u878d\u56f0\u5883\u4e2d\u8d70\u51fa\uff0c\u9700\u8981\u5f88\u957f\u65f6\u95f4\u3002\u6b63\u5e38\u7684\u8d37\u6b3e\u529f\u80fd\u6062\u590d\u53ef\u80fd\u9700\u8981\u4e09\u3001\u56db\u5e74\u65f6\u95f4\u3002\u5728\u8fc7\u6e21\u671f\u95f4\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5c06\u65e0\u6cd5\u83b7\u53d6\u6240\u9700\u7684\u5168\u90e8\u4fe1\u8d37\u5e76\u53ef\u80fd\u8868\u73b0\u4e0d\u4f73\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u8ba9\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u793e\u4f1a\u627f\u62c5\u5de8\u5927\u7684\u4ee3\u4ef7\u3002\u800c\u6240\u6709\u8fd9\u4e00\u5207\u672c\u6765\u90fd\u662f\u53ef\u4ee5\u907f\u514d\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n
\u672c\u6587\u4f5c\u8005\u662fEvercore Partners\u7684\u8463\u4e8b\u957f\u517c\u9996\u5e2d\u6267\u884c\u5b98\uff0c\u66fe\u5728\u6bd4\u5c14\u00b7\u514b\u6797\u987f(Bill Clinton)\u603b\u7edf\u4efb\u671f\u5185\u4efb\u7f8e\u56fd\u8d22\u653f\u90e8\u526f\u90e8\u957f\u3002\u4e0a\u4e16\u7eaa80\u5e74\u4ee3\uff0c\u4ed6\u66fe\u662f\u96f7\u66fc\u5144\u5f1f\u6295\u884c\u4e1a\u52a1\u8054\u5408\u4e3b\u7ba1\u53ca\u8463\u4e8b\u4f1a\u6210\u5458\u3002<\/p>\n
\u8bd1\u8005\/\u6c6a\u6d0b<\/p>\n
MODERN HISTORY’S GREATEST REGULATORY FAILURE<\/strong><\/p>\n Roger Altman 2008-09-22 <\/p>\n Financial market conditions have now descended to the lowest point since the banking shutdown of 1932. In one 96-hour period, we saw three nearly unimaginable events. Lehman Brothers, America’s fourth-largest securities firm, filed for bankruptcy. Merrill Lynch, the best-known firm, was forced overnight to sell itself to Bank of America. And market pressures forced the Federal Reserve into a huge $85bn takeover of AIG, our largest insurer, to avert its bankruptcy.<\/p>\n All of this occurred only two weeks after the massive federal rescue of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and three months after the collapse of Bear Stearns. Market participants around the world have been shocked senseless by these serial failures. Their confidence has evaporated, replaced by an unprecedented level of fear. That is why lending is frozen and worldwide markets are plunging.<\/p>\n Now, everyone has the same question: how much worse can this get? This lack of confidence is self-fulfilling and endangers other financial institutions. These are companies that refinance themselves in the capital markets every day. They depend on the confidence of lenders. But, if that disappears, their solvency is threatened. This is where we are now.<\/p>\n This has put the Fed and the US Treasury into a nearly impossible position. At one level, the Fed’s core mission is to protect the stability of our financial system. It engineered the rescue of Bear Stearns and extended emergency credit to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac because it judged that the systems might not withstand their collapse. It has legal authority to provide unlimited assistance to others.<\/p>\n But there is a practical limit to further bail-outs; a line beyond which an inflation, currency and confidence backlash could result. This is why, this past weekend, the Fed refused a direct rescue of either Lehman Brothers or Merrill Lynch. It judged that the system could survive a Lehman bankruptcy and that it had to enforce a limit on the size of its assistance. Clearly, it did not want to rescue AIG. <\/p>\n Yet it is extremely difficult for the authorities to judge which blows the system can endure and which might trigger a meltdown. There were no precedents for judging whether the biggest insurance company could be allowed to fail or whether a domino effect would follow. Ultimately, the Fed saw too much systemic risk, reversed course and intervened in AIG.<\/p>\n Whether the Fed and Treasury can continue to make these excruciating case-by-case judgments is unknowable. If forced to choose between staying within prudent limits on its assistance, or saving the financial system, it must choose the latter. As Paul Volcker, former Fed chairman, has suggested, an enormous Resolution Trust Corporation-style approach for the banking and securities system may be required.<\/p>\n This might involve legislation to cleanse these institutions by acquiring their distressed mortgages and other assets in exchange, perhaps, for US Treasury bonds. The institutions would then be stabilised, although the cost to taxpayers, even after gradual recoveries on federal sale of those assets, would be huge. But, if necessary, this price would have to be paid.<\/p>\n This will come to be seen as the greatest regulatory failure in modern history. The degree of leverage that these institutions took on is indefensible. The average large securities firm was leveraged 27 to one in mid-2007. They were not regulated by any prudential supervisor. In effect, they regulated themselves. The lack of transparency was stunning. Many big lenders did not disclose off-balance-sheet risks. In some cases, they did not understand these risks themselves. More fundamentally, we allowed a second, huge financial system to develop outside the normal banking network. It consisted of investment banks, mortgage finance companies and the like. It was unregulated, not transparent and way too leveraged. But with nine separate and mostly ineffective financial regulators, these risks were ignored. That is, until this second system crashed.<\/p>\n We will be climbing out of this financial hole for a long time. Three or four years may pass before normal lending functions are resumed. In the interim, our economy will not have access to all of the credit it needs and may underperform, at great cost to our society. All of this could have been prevented.<\/p>\n The writer is chairman and chief executive of Evercore Partners and was deputy US Treasury secretary under President Bill Clinton. He was a co-head of investment banking and a board member at Lehman Brothers in the 1980s<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" \u4f5c\u8005\uff1a\u7f57\u6770?\u963f\u5c14\u7279\u66fc(Roger Altman)\u4e3a\u82f1\u56fd\u300a\u91d1\u878d\u65f6\u62a5\u300b\u64b0\u7a3f 2008-09-22 \u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u573a\u72b6\u51b5\u73b0\u5df2\u964d\u81f31932\u5e74\u94f6\u884c\u4e1a\u5012\u95ed\u4ee5\u6765\u7684\u6700\u4f4e\u70b9\u3002\u572896\u4e2a\u5c0f\u65f6\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u91cc\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u76ee\u7779\u4e863\u8d77\u65e0\u6cd5\u60f3\u8c61\u7684\u4e8b\u4ef6\u3002\u7f8e\u56fd\u7b2c\u56db\u5927\u5238\u5546\u96f7\u66fc\u5144\u5f1f(Lehman Brothers)\u7533\u8bf7\u7834\u4ea7\u3002\u4e00\u591c\u4e4b\u95f4\uff0c\u6700\u8d1f\u76db\u540d\u7684\u516c\u53f8\u7f8e\u6797(Me…
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