{"id":70905,"date":"2023-05-04T16:41:45","date_gmt":"2023-05-04T21:41:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blog.jackjia.com\/?p=70905"},"modified":"2023-05-04T16:41:45","modified_gmt":"2023-05-04T21:41:45","slug":"20230504-%e5%8a%a0%e6%8b%bf%e5%a4%a7%e8%ae%b8%e5%a4%9a%e5%86%99%e5%ad%97%e6%a5%bc%e7%a9%ba%e7%a9%ba%e8%8d%a1%e8%8d%a1%ef%bc%8c%e5%90%ac%e5%90%ac%e4%b8%93%e5%ae%b6%e8%af%b4%e6%84%8f%e5%91%b3%e7%9d%80","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blog.jackjia.com\/?p=70905","title":{"rendered":"20230504\/\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u8bb8\u591a\u5199\u5b57\u697c\u7a7a\u7a7a\u8361\u8361\uff0c\u542c\u542c\u4e13\u5bb6\u8bf4\u610f\u5473\u7740\u4ec0\u4e48\uff1f"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\uff08\u661f\u661f\u751f\u6d3b\/\u6377\u514b\u4f73\uff09\u5229\u7387\u4e0a\u5347\u7ed9\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u5e26\u6765\u538b\u529b\uff0c\u4f46\u4e0d\u4ec5\u4ec5\u662f\u623f\u4e3b\u611f\u5230\u538b\u529b\u3002\u4e13\u5bb6\u8b66\u544a\u8bf4\uff0c\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u7684\u5546\u4e1a\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u884c\u4e1a\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6025\u5267\u4e0b\u6ed1\u7684\u201c\u7164\u77ff\u4e2d\u7684\u91d1\u4e1d\u96c0\u201d\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u7684\u91cd\u8fd4\u5de5\u4f5c\u573a\u6240\u4f7f\u8bb8\u591a\u5199\u5b57\u697c\u623f\u4e1c\u5904\u4e8e\u4e0d\u5b89\u7684\u5883\u5730\u3002<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/blog.jackjia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/office0504_1.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" src=\"http:\/\/blog.jackjia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/office0504_1-1024x467.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"734\" height=\"335\" class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-70906\" srcset=\"https:\/\/blog.jackjia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/office0504_1-1024x467.png 1024w, https:\/\/blog.jackjia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/office0504_1-300x137.png 300w, https:\/\/blog.jackjia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/office0504_1-768x350.png 768w, https:\/\/blog.jackjia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/office0504_1.png 1058w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 734px) 100vw, 734px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u7164\u77ff\u4e2d\u7684\u91d1\u4e1d\u96c0\uff08Canary in the coal mine\uff09\u662f\u6307\u5371\u9669\u9884\u8b66\u7684\u67d0\u4eba\u6216\u67d0\u4e8b\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u73af\u7403\u65b0\u95fb\u62a5\u9053\u8bf4\uff0c\u5bf9\u5546\u4e1a\u5730\u4ea7\u5305\u62ec\u5199\u5b57\u697c\u3001\u96f6\u552e\u7a7a\u95f4\u3001\u4ed3\u5e93\u548c\u751f\u4ea7\u5de5\u5382\u7684\u884c\u4e1a\u7684\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u62c5\u5fe7\u6e90\u4e8e\u7f8e\u56fd\u548c\u94f6\u884c\u4e1a\u8fd1\u671f\u7684\u4e0d\u7a33\u5b9a\u3002\u52a8\u8361\u5c40\u52bf\u5df2\u4ece\u7f8e\u56fd\u8513\u5ef6\u81f3\u5168\u7403\u94f6\u884c\u673a\u6784\u3002<\/p>\n<p>Berkshire Hathaway\u516c\u53f8\u526f\u603b\u88c1\u517c\u6295\u8d44\u5de8\u5934\u5df4\u83f2\u7279\u7684\u5f97\u529b\u52a9\u624bCharlie Munger\u5728\u5468\u672b\u6572\u54cd\u4e86\u8b66\u949f\uff0c\u63d0\u9192\u4eba\u4eec\u6ce8\u610f\u7f8e\u56fd\u94f6\u884c\u5728\u5546\u4e1a\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u9886\u57df\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u655e\u53e3\u3002<\/p>\n<p>Munger\u57284\u670830\u65e5\u544a\u8bc9\u82f1\u56fd\u300a\u91d1\u878d\u65f6\u62a5\u300b\uff0c\u4ed6\u8ba4\u4e3a\u7f8e\u56fd\u94f6\u884c\u201c\u5145\u65a5\u7740\u201d\u4ed6\u8ba4\u4e3a\u4e0e\u4ef7\u503c\u4e0b\u964d\u7684\u5546\u4e1a\u5730\u4ea7\u4ef7\u683c\u76f8\u5173\u7684\u201c\u4e0d\u826f\u8d37\u6b3e\u201d\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u672c\u5468\u63a5\u53d7\u73af\u7403\u65b0\u95fb\u91c7\u8bbf\u7684\u4e13\u5bb6\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u5546\u4e1a\u5730\u4ea7\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u5199\u5b57\u697c\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u4e25\u91cd\u6076\u5316\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u5229\u7387\u4e0a\u5347\u4f1a\u7ed9\u8d37\u6b3e\u5e26\u6765\u538b\u529b\uff0c\u800c\u94f6\u884c\u4e1a\u62c5\u5fc3\u623f\u4e1c\u65e0\u6cd5\u83b7\u5f97\u907f\u514d\u51fa\u552e\u5176\u5efa\u7b51\u7269\u6240\u9700\u7684\u4fe1\u8d37\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u90a3\u4e48\uff0c\u8fd9\u600e\u4e48\u4f1a\u5bfc\u81f4\u66f4\u5e7f\u6cdb\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5d29\u6e83\u5462\uff1f\u4ee5\u4e0b\u662f\u4ed6\u4eec\u5bf9\u6b64\u7684\u770b\u6cd5\u4ee5\u53ca\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u7684\u73b0\u51b5\u3002<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/blog.jackjia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/office0504_2.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" src=\"http:\/\/blog.jackjia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/office0504_2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"734\" height=\"413\" class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-70907\" srcset=\"https:\/\/blog.jackjia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/office0504_2.png 778w, https:\/\/blog.jackjia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/office0504_2-300x169.png 300w, https:\/\/blog.jackjia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/office0504_2-768x432.png 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 734px) 100vw, 734px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><strong>**\u6df7\u5408\u5de5\u4f5c\u6a21\u5f0f\u8ba9\u66f4\u591a\u529e\u516c\u5ba4\u7a7a\u7f6e<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u66fe\u62c5\u4efb\u5fb7\u52e4\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u516c\u53f8\u9996\u5e2d\u72ec\u7acb\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6Craig Alexander\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u867d\u7136\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u4eba\u5df2\u7ecf\u770b\u5230\u5229\u7387\u4e0a\u5347\u5bf9\u653e\u7f13\u7684\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u4f46\u5546\u4e1a\u65b9\u9762\u201c\u540c\u6837\u91cd\u8981\u201d\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4ed6\u8bf4\uff0c\u6709\u5f88\u591a\u7406\u7531\u503c\u5f97\u5173\u6ce8\u5546\u4e1a\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u884c\u4e1a\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u5bf9\u4e8e\u529e\u516c\u7a7a\u95f4\uff0c\u4f01\u4e1a\u7684\u9700\u6c42\u660e\u663e\u4e0b\u964d\u2014\u2014\u8fd9\u9650\u5236\u4e86\u623f\u4e1c\u53ef\u4ee5\u5411\u79df\u6237\u6536\u53d6\u7684\u79df\u91d1\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u867d\u7136\u957f\u671f\u4ee5\u6765\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u8ba4\u4e3a\u4eba\u4eec\u7684\u5de5\u4f5c\u65b9\u5f0f\u5c06\u8f6c\u53d8\u4e3a\u5141\u8bb8\u66f4\u8fdc\u7a0b\u548c\u7075\u6d3b\u7684\u5de5\u4f5c\uff0c\u4f46\u4ed6\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u5927\u6d41\u884c\u75c5\u201c\u5927\u5927\u52a0\u5feb\u4e86\u201d\u8fd9\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u901f\u5ea6\u2014\u2014\u8fd9\u79cd\u8f6c\u53d8\u53ef\u80fd\u8ba9\u8bb8\u591a\u4e1a\u4e3b\u63aa\u624b\u4e0d\u53ca\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u8ffd\u8e2a\u5168\u7403\u5546\u4e1a\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u884c\u4e1a\u7684CoStar\u9996\u5e2d\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u517c\u5e02\u573a\u5206\u6790\u4e3b\u7ba1Carl Gomez\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u5982\u4eca\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u590d\u5de5\u7684\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\uff0c\u5199\u5b57\u697c\u6b63\u5728\u52aa\u529b\u7559\u4f4f\u548c\u5438\u5f15\u79df\u6237\u3002<\/p>\n<p>Gomez\u8bf4\uff0c\u5728\u591a\u4f26\u591a\uff0c\u5728COVID-19\u5927\u6d41\u884c\u7206\u53d1\u5e76\u4fc3\u4f7f\u5458\u5de5\u96c6\u4f53\u5728\u5bb6\u5de5\u4f5c\u4e4b\u524d\uff0c\u7a7a\u7f3a\u7387\u975e\u5e38\u4f4e\uff0c\u7ea6\u4e3a4%\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4ed6\u8bf4\uff0c\u81ea\u5c01\u9501\u89e3\u9664\u4ee5\u6765\uff0c\u5982\u4eca\u591a\u4f26\u591a\u7684\u6570\u5b57\u5df2\u7ecf\u98d9\u5347\u81f3\u767e\u5206\u4e4b\u5341\u51e0\uff0c\u5e76\u6307\u51fa\u5927\u91cf\u65b0\u5efa\u6210\u7684\u5efa\u7b51\u8fdb\u5165\u5e02\u573a\u6b63\u5728\u63a8\u9ad8\u8fd9\u4e00\u6570\u5b57\u3002<\/p>\n<p>Gomez\u8bf4\uff0c\u5f53\u4eca\u5e02\u573a\u5b58\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u57fa\u672c\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u5373\u4f20\u7edf\u529e\u516c\u5e02\u573a\u662f\u5426\u4f1a\u6062\u590d\u5230\u5927\u6d41\u884c\u524d\u7684\u6c34\u5e73\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u201c\u96c7\u5458\u6216\u96c7\u4e3b\u662f\u5426\u518d\u6b21\u9700\u8981\u6240\u6709\u7684\u529e\u516c\u7a7a\u95f4\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u6211\u4eec\u662f\u5426\u5904\u4e8e\u67d0\u79cd\u65b0\u5e38\u6001\uff0c\u4eba\u4eec\u6709\u65f6\u4f1a\u5728\u529e\u516c\u5ba4\u5de5\u4f5c\uff0c\u6709\u65f6\u4f1a\u5728\u5bb6\u91cc\u5de5\u4f5c\uff1f\u8fd9\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u5de8\u5927\u7684\u672a\u77e5\u6570\uff0c\u201d\u4ed6\u8bf4\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u6700\u8fd1\u7684\u60c5\u5f62\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u5de5\u4eba\u5bf9\u7075\u6d3b\u5de5\u4f5c\u7684\u6e34\u671b\u5e76\u6ca1\u6709\u6d88\u5931\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5728\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u516c\u5171\u670d\u52a1\u5de5\u4f1a\u4e0e\u8054\u90a6\u653f\u5e9c\u7684\u8c08\u5224\u4e2d\uff0c\u8fdc\u7a0b\u5de5\u4f5c\u7684\u6743\u5229\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u75c7\u7ed3\u6240\u5728\u3002<\/p>\n<p>Gomez\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u4e5f\u666e\u904d\u9884\u8ba1\u591a\u4f26\u591a\u4ee5\u53ca\u6e29\u54e5\u534e\u3001\u7ebd\u7ea6\u5e02\u548c\u65e7\u91d1\u5c71\u7b49\u57ce\u5e02\u548c\u5176\u4ed6\u4e3b\u8981\u5317\u7f8e\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u7a7a\u7f6e\u7387\u5c06\u4fdd\u6301\u9ad8\u4f4d\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4ed6\u8bf4\uff0c\u8fd9\u610f\u5473\u7740\u5546\u4e1a\u623f\u4e1c\u7684\u73b0\u91d1\u6d41\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u53d7\u5230\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u4ed6\u4eec\u65e0\u6cd5\u50cf\u8fc7\u53bb\u90a3\u6837\u4f9d\u8d56\u79df\u91d1\u589e\u957f\u3002<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/blog.jackjia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/office0504_3.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" src=\"http:\/\/blog.jackjia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/office0504_3.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"734\" height=\"423\" class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-70908\" srcset=\"https:\/\/blog.jackjia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/office0504_3.png 775w, https:\/\/blog.jackjia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/office0504_3-300x173.png 300w, https:\/\/blog.jackjia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/office0504_3-768x443.png 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 734px) 100vw, 734px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><strong>**\u9ad8\u5229\u7387\uff0c\u94f6\u884c\u4e1a\u62c5\u5fe7\u5546\u4e1a\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u964d\u6e29<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u5546\u4e1a\u623f\u4e1c\u6b63\u5728\u53d7\u5230\u6253\u51fb\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u66f4\u9ad8\u7684\u5229\u7387\u548c\u94f6\u884c\u4e1a\u7684\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u7ed9\u4ed6\u4eec\u62b5\u5fa1\u91d1\u878d\u6311\u6218\u7684\u80fd\u529b\u5e26\u6765\u4e86\u538b\u529b\u3002<\/p>\n<p>Alexander\u8bf4\uff0c\u5728\u8fc7\u53bb\u5341\u5e74\u6216\u66f4\u957f\u65f6\u95f4\u91cc\uff0c\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u548c\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u5229\u7387\u73af\u5883\u90fd\u76f8\u5bf9\u8f83\u4f4e\uff0c\u8fd9\u5bf9\u5546\u4e1a\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u6765\u8bf4\u201c\u65e0\u7591\u662f\u79ef\u6781\u7684\u201d\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4ed6\u89e3\u91ca\u8bf4\uff0c\u4f4e\u5229\u7387\u4e0d\u4ec5\u6709\u52a9\u4e8e\u4f01\u4e1a\u878d\u8d44\u548c\u5efa\u8bbe\u65b0\u9879\u76ee\uff0c\u8fd8\u53ef\u4ee5\u901a\u8fc7\u652f\u4ed8\u79df\u91d1\u4f7f\u5177\u6709\u53ef\u9760\u56de\u62a5\u7387\u7684\u5199\u5b57\u697c\u7269\u4e1a\u6210\u4e3a\u66f4\u5177\u5438\u5f15\u529b\u7684\u76ee\u6807\uff0c\u5438\u5f15\u90a3\u4e9b\u4e0d\u613f\u8d2d\u4e70\u5b89\u5168\u653f\u5e9c\u503a\u5238\u4f46\u8f83\u4f4e\u56de\u62a5\u7387\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4f46\u6700\u4f4e\u5229\u7387\u7684\u65e5\u5b50\u5927\u7ea6\u5728\u4e00\u5e74\u524d\u7ed3\u675f\u3002\u4e16\u754c\u5404\u5730\u7684\u4e2d\u592e\u94f6\u884c\u5305\u62ec\u7f8e\u56fd\u548c\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u5728\u8fc7\u53bb\u4e00\u5e74\u4e2d\u8fc5\u901f\u63d0\u9ad8\u4e86\u57fa\u51c6\u5229\u7387\u4ee5\u6291\u5236\u901a\u8d27\u81a8\u80c0\u3002<\/p>\n<p>Alexander\u8bf4\uff0c\u4e0e\u4f4f\u5b85\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u4e00\u6837\uff0c\u8be5\u884c\u4e1a\u7684\u5546\u4e1a\u65b9\u9762\u5bf9\u52a0\u606f\u7279\u522b\u654f\u611f\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4ed6\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u94f6\u884c\u6700\u8fd1\u7684\u5012\u95ed\u5c06\u6536\u7d27\u6574\u4e2a\u884c\u4e1a\u7684\u4fe1\u8d37\u6761\u4ef6\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u5176\u4f59\u7684\u8d37\u65b9\u5bf9\u4ed6\u4eec\u613f\u610f\u63a5\u53d7\u7684\u5ba2\u6237\u8d28\u91cf\u66f4\u52a0\u6000\u7591\u3002\u8fd9\u5bf9\u5546\u4e1a\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u884c\u4e1a\u6765\u8bf4\u662f\u4e2a\u574f\u6d88\u606f\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u5468\u671f\u9006\u8f6c\uff0c\u5efa\u7b51\u7269\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u5438\u5f15\u529b\u964d\u4f4e\uff0c\u5efa\u9020\u96be\u5ea6\u52a0\u5927\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5546\u4e1a\u5730\u4ea7\u6b63\u5728\u5931\u53bb\u5e02\u573a\u9752\u7750\uff0c\u800c\u94f6\u884c\u5728\u9009\u62e9\u5411\u8c01\u63d0\u4f9b\u4fe1\u8d37\u65b9\u9762\u4f1a\u66f4\u52a0\u6311\u5254\u3002<\/p>\n<p>Alexander\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u6700\u8fd1\u7f8e\u56fd\u533a\u57df\u6027\u94f6\u884c\u7684\u5012\u95ed\u5c06\u4f7f\u6240\u6709\u8d37\u65b9\u53d8\u5f97\u66f4\u52a0\u201c\u4fdd\u5b88\u201d\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u4ed6\u4eec\u5c06\u7279\u522b\u4e0d\u613f\u5411\u5728\u65b0\u7684\u66f4\u9ad8\u5229\u7387\u73af\u5883\u4e2d\u9677\u5165\u56f0\u5883\u7684\u884c\u4e1a\u63d0\u4f9b\u8d37\u6b3e\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u7ed3\u679c\u662f\uff0c\u5546\u4e1a\u623f\u4e1c\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c\u5728\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u4e1a\u52a1\u524d\u666f\u4e0d\u660e\u6717\u3001\u6700\u9700\u8981\u6551\u547d\u7a3b\u8349\u7684\u65f6\u5019\u66f4\u96be\u83b7\u5f97\u4fe1\u8d37\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u201c\u4eba\u4eec\u666e\u904d\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u5546\u4e1a\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u56e0\u4fe1\u8d37\u6761\u4ef6\u6536\u7d27\u548c\u5229\u7387\u4e0a\u5347\u800c\u611f\u5230\u6781\u5ea6\u75db\u82e6\u7684\u884c\u4e1a\u4e4b\u4e00\uff0c\u201dAlexander\u8bf4\u3002<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/blog.jackjia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/office0504_4.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" src=\"http:\/\/blog.jackjia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/office0504_4.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"734\" height=\"494\" class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-70909\" srcset=\"https:\/\/blog.jackjia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/office0504_4.png 761w, https:\/\/blog.jackjia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/office0504_4-300x202.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 734px) 100vw, 734px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><strong>**\u5bf9\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u5f71\u54cd\u4f1a\u6709\u591a\u4e25\u91cd\uff1f<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u6240\u6709\u53d7\u8bbf\u7684\u4e13\u5bb6\u90fd\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u8feb\u5728\u7709\u776b\u7684\u5546\u4e1a\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u4f4e\u8ff7\u9884\u8ba1\u4e0d\u4f1a\u9020\u62102008-09\u5e74\u91d1\u878d\u5371\u673a\u90a3\u6837\u7684\u5d29\u6e83\u3002<\/p>\n<p>Gomez\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u62c5\u5fe7\u5c24\u4e3a\u4e25\u91cd\uff0c\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u5927\u90fd\u5e02\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u8bb8\u591a\u5927\u578b\u529e\u516c\u697c\u90fd\u7531\u5927\u91cf\u8d37\u6b3e\u8d44\u52a9\uff0c\u4e2a\u4eba\u4e1a\u4e3b\u53ef\u80fd\u6ca1\u6709\u624b\u5934\u7684\u8d44\u91d1\u6765\u586b\u8865\u4f4e\u79df\u91d1\u3001\u9ad8\u5229\u7387\u548c\u51cf\u5c11\u83b7\u5f97\u4fe1\u8d37\u7684\u673a\u4f1a\u7684\u6f0f\u6d1e\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4ed6\u4ee5\u65e7\u91d1\u5c71\u4e3a\u4f8b\uff0c\u9ad8\u7a7a\u7f6e\u7387\u8feb\u4f7f\u4e00\u4e9b\u4e1a\u4e3b\u4ee5\u6781\u4f4e\u7684\u4ef7\u683c\u51fa\u552e\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u623f\u4ea7\uff0c\u5bfc\u81f4\u4eba\u4eec\u62c5\u5fc3\u5176\u4ed6\u5e02\u573a\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u9762\u4e34\u7c7b\u4f3c\u7684\u9500\u552e\u6d6a\u6f6e\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u201c\u5f53\u50cf\u8fd9\u6837\u5927\u7684\u4e8b\u60c5\u5f00\u59cb\u611f\u5230\u75db\u82e6\u65f6\uff0c\u4f1a\u5bf9\u66f4\u5e7f\u6cdb\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4ea7\u751f\u8fde\u9501\u53cd\u5e94\uff0c\u201d\u4ed6\u8bf4\u3002\u201c\u968f\u7740\u8fd9\u4e9b\u591a\u7c73\u8bfa\u9aa8\u724c\u8fde\u63a5\u8d77\u6765\uff0c\u8fd9\u786e\u5b9e\u521b\u9020\u4e86\u4e00\u79cd\u5371\u9669\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u73af\u5883\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\u4f46Gomez\u6307\u51fa\u4e86\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u4e00\u79cd\u4e0d\u540c\u6240\u6709\u6743\u6a21\u5f0f\u2014\u2014\u5176\u4e2d\u8d44\u672c\u5145\u8db3\u7684\u517b\u8001\u57fa\u91d1\u62e5\u6709\u5927\u57ce\u5e02\u5e02\u4e2d\u5fc3\u5199\u5b57\u697c\u7684\u76f8\u5f53\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\u2014\u2014\u8fd9\u53ef\u4ee5\u4f7f\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u514d\u53d7\u5546\u4e1a\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u4f4e\u8ff7\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u3002<\/p>\n<p>Alexander\u540c\u610f\uff0c\u4e0e\u7f8e\u56fd\u76f8\u6bd4\uff0c\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u5728\u5546\u4e1a\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u65b9\u9762\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u964d\u4f4e\uff0c\u5e76\u90e8\u5206\u5f52\u529f\u4e8e\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u76f8\u5bf9\u7a33\u5b9a\u7684\u94f6\u884c\u4f53\u7cfb\uff0c\u8be5\u4f53\u7cfb\u5728\u8fb9\u5883\u5357\u90e8\u7684\u52a8\u8361\u4e2d\u8868\u73b0\u51fa\u76f8\u5bf9\u8f83\u5c11\u7684\u4e0d\u7a33\u5b9a\u8ff9\u8c61\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4ed6\u8bf4\uff0c\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u5927\u578b\u94f6\u884c\u6301\u6709\u7684\u8d44\u4ea7\u66f4\u52a0\u591a\u5143\u5316\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u4e0d\u592a\u53ef\u80fd\u2014\u2014\u6b63\u5982Munger\u5c31\u7f8e\u56fd\u94f6\u884c\u7684\u5546\u4e1a\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u98ce\u9669\u6240\u53d1\u51fa\u7684\u8b66\u544a\u2014\u2014\u8fc7\u5ea6\u6295\u8d44\u4e8e\u4efb\u4f55\u4e00\u4e2a\u5bf9\u9ad8\u5229\u7387\u654f\u611f\u7684\u7279\u5b9a\u884c\u4e1a\u3002<\/p>\n<p>Alexander\u8b66\u544a\u8bf4\uff0c\u8fd9\u5e76\u4e0d\u610f\u5473\u7740\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u4e0d\u4f1a\u53d7\u5230\u4e0e\u5176\u5199\u5b57\u697c\u5e02\u573a\u76f8\u5173\u7684\u66f4\u4e25\u91cd\u8870\u9000\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4ed6\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u9ad8\u5229\u7387\u9700\u8981\u4e00\u5e74\u6216\u66f4\u957f\u65f6\u95f4\u624d\u80fd\u5728\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4e2d\u53d1\u6325\u4f5c\u7528\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u4e0d\u540c\u884c\u4e1a\u4f1a\u5148\u4e8e\u5176\u4ed6\u884c\u4e1a\u611f\u53d7\u5230\u66f4\u9ad8\u501f\u8d37\u6210\u672c\u7684\u51b2\u51fb\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5c3d\u7ba1\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8fc4\u4eca\u5df2\u88ab\u8bc1\u660e\u662f\u201c\u6709\u5f39\u6027\u7684\u201d\uff0c\u52b3\u52a8\u529b\u5e02\u573a\u5f3a\u52b2\uff0c2023\u5e74\u524d\u51e0\u4e2a\u6708\u7684\u4ea7\u51fa\u51fa\u4eba\u610f\u6599\u5730\u5f3a\u52b2\uff0c\u4f46Alexander\u62c5\u5fc3\uff0c\u968f\u7740\u8bb8\u591a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u653e\u7f13\uff0c\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u65e5\u5b50\u4e0d\u4f1a\u6c38\u8fdc\u6301\u7eed\u4e0b\u53bb\uff0c\u8fd9\u9700\u8981\u65f6\u95f4\u53bb\u5370\u8bc1\u3002<\/p>\n<p>Alexander\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u5546\u4e1a\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u538b\u529b\u662f\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4ece\u4f4e\u5229\u7387\u73af\u5883\u8f6c\u5411\u9ad8\u5229\u7387\u73af\u5883\u7684\u5f81\u5146\uff0c\u5176\u4ed6\u884c\u4e1a\u5c06\u5f88\u5feb\u5f00\u59cb\u770b\u5230\u65e9\u671f\u7684\u5f39\u6027\u5728\u672a\u6765\u51e0\u4e2a\u6708\u201c\u51cf\u5f31\u201d\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u201c\u6211\u8ba4\u4e3a\u6700\u5927\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u4e0d\u662f\u6211\u4eec\u5c06\u5728\u94f6\u884c\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e2d\u53d1\u751f\u4efb\u4f55\u5f62\u5f0f\u7684\u707e\u96be\uff0c\u6700\u5927\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u662f\u6211\u4eec\u5c06\u770b\u5230\u672a\u6765\u7ecf\u6d4e\u75b2\u8f6f\uff0c\u201d\u4ed6\u8bf4\u3002\u201c\u800c\u4e14\u6211\u8ba4\u4e3a\u5546\u4e1a\u5730\u4ea7\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u662f\u7164\u77ff\u4e2d\u7684\u91d1\u4e1d\u96c0\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\uff08\u661f\u661f\u751f\u6d3b\/\u6377\u514b\u4f73\uff09\u5229\u7387\u4e0a\u5347\u7ed9\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u5e26\u6765\u538b\u529b\uff0c\u4f46\u4e0d\u4ec5\u4ec5\u662f\u623f\u4e3b\u611f\u5230\u538b\u529b\u3002\u4e13\u5bb6\u8b66\u544a\u8bf4\uff0c\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u7684\u5546\u4e1a\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u884c\u4e1a\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6025\u5267\u4e0b\u6ed1\u7684\u201c\u7164\u77ff\u4e2d\u7684\u91d1\u4e1d\u96c0\u201d\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u7684\u91cd\u8fd4\u5de5\u4f5c\u573a\u6240\u4f7f\u8bb8\u591a\u5199\u5b57\u697c\u623f\u4e1c\u5904\u4e8e\u4e0d\u5b89\u7684\u5883\u5730\u3002 \u7164\u77ff\u4e2d\u7684\u91d1\u4e1d\u96c0\uff08Canary in the coal mine\uff09\u662f\u6307\u5371\u9669\u9884\u8b66\u7684\u67d0\u4eba\u6216\u67d0\u4e8b\u3002 &#8230;<br \/><a class=\"read-more-button\" href=\"https:\/\/blog.jackjia.com\/?p=70905\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":70906,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[3],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.jackjia.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/70905"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.jackjia.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.jackjia.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.jackjia.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.jackjia.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=70905"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/blog.jackjia.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/70905\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":70910,"href":"https:\/\/blog.jackjia.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/70905\/revisions\/70910"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.jackjia.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/70906"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.jackjia.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=70905"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.jackjia.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=70905"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.jackjia.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=70905"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}