{"id":65469,"date":"2022-06-07T23:14:07","date_gmt":"2022-06-08T04:14:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blog.jackjia.com\/?p=65469"},"modified":"2022-06-07T23:14:07","modified_gmt":"2022-06-08T04:14:07","slug":"20220608-%e5%a6%82%e6%9e%9c%e6%bf%80%e8%bf%9b%e5%8a%a0%e6%81%af%e5%92%84%e5%92%84%e9%80%bc%e4%ba%ba%ef%bc%8c%e5%8a%a0%e6%8b%bf%e5%a4%a7%e5%b0%86%e9%9d%a2%e4%b8%b4%e4%b8%8e%e4%bd%8f%e6%88%bf%e7%9b%b8","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blog.jackjia.com\/?p=65469","title":{"rendered":"20220608\/\u5982\u679c\u6fc0\u8fdb\u52a0\u606f\u5484\u5484\u903c\u4eba\uff0c\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u5c06\u9762\u4e34\u4e0e\u4f4f\u623f\u76f8\u5173\u8870\u9000\u98ce\u9669"},"content":{"rendered":"

\uff08\u661f\u661f\u751f\u6d3b\/\u6377\u514b\u4f73\uff09\u72ec\u7acb\u5b8f\u89c2\u7814\u7a76\u673a\u6784Capital Economics\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u7684\u4e00\u4efd\u62a5\u544a\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u592e\u884c\u5728\u52a0\u606f\u65b9\u9762\u8fc7\u4e8e\u6fc0\u8fdb\uff0c\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u9762\u4e34\u56e0\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u5e02\u573a\u8fc5\u901f\u8c03\u6574\u800c\u5f15\u53d1\u7684\u8870\u9000\u98ce\u9669\u3002<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

\u636e\u91d1\u878d\u90ae\u62a5\u62a5\u9053\uff0c\u5728\u5468\u4e8c\u7684\u66f4\u65b0\u4e2d\uff0c\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u9ad8\u7ea7\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6Stephen Brown\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u592e\u884c\u4f3c\u4e4e\u5bf95\u6708\u4efd\u623f\u5c4b\u9500\u552e\u7684\u4e24\u4f4d\u6570\u4e0b\u964d\u2014\u2014\u8fde\u7eed\u7b2c\u4e8c\u4e2a\u6708\u4e0b\u964d\u2014\u2014\u5e76\u4e0d\u62c5\u5fc3\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u5b83\u5bf9\u901a\u80c0\u91c7\u53d6\u4e86\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u5f3a\u786c\u7684\u6001\u5ea6\u3002<\/p>\n

\u201c\u8fd9\u589e\u52a0\u4e86\u94f6\u884c\u57287\u6708\u4f1a\u8bae\u4e0a\u5b9e\u65bd\u66f4\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u52a0\u606f\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\uff0c\u8ba9\u6211\u4eec\u62c5\u5fc3\u5b83\u5c06\u91c7\u53d6\u6bd4\u6700\u7ec8\u9700\u8981\u7684\u66f4\u6fc0\u8fdb\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u6536\u7d27\u65b9\u5f0f\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u5bfc\u81f4\u623f\u4ef7\u5927\u5e45\u4e0b\u8dcc\u5e76\u9762\u4e34\u4e25\u91cd\u8870\u9000\u7684\u98ce\u9669\uff0c \u201c\u4ed6\u8bf4\u3002<\/p>\n

\u7ee74\u6708\u4efd\u4e0b\u964d14%\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c5\u6708\u4efd\u5168\u56fd\u623f\u5c4b\u9500\u552e\u91cf\u73af\u6bd4\u4e0b\u964d12%\u3002\u867d\u7136Brown\u8868\u793a\u4e0b\u964d\u5c06\u4f7f\u9500\u552e\u66f4\u63a5\u8fd1\u5927\u6d41\u884c\u524d\u7684\u5e38\u6001\uff0c\u4f46\u4f9b\u9700\u5e73\u8861\u8ba9\u4ed6\u6709\u66f4\u591a\u7406\u7531\u62c5\u5fc3\u3002<\/p>\n

\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u8be5\u673a\u6784\u7684\u6570\u636e\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c\u591a\u4f26\u591a\u3001\u8499\u7279\u5229\u5c14\u3001\u6e29\u54e5\u534e\u548c\u5361\u5c14\u52a0\u91cc\u7b49\u4e3b\u8981\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u9500\u552e\u4e0e\u65b0\u623f\u6e90\u6bd4\u7387\u4e0b\u964d\u610f\u5473\u7740\u623f\u4ef7\u901a\u80c0\u53ef\u80fd\u4ece4\u6708\u4efd\u768418%\u4e0b\u964d\u5230\u4eca\u5e74\u5e74\u5e95\u7684\u96f6\u3002<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

\u6839\u636eCapital Economics\u7684\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u623f\u4ef7\u5df2\u7ecf\u5728\u4e0b\u964d\uff0c\u5168\u56fd\u8303\u56f4\u5185\u7684\u623f\u4ef7\u73af\u6bd4\u4e0b\u964d\u4e860.6%\u3002\u591a\u4f26\u591a\u7684\u623f\u4ef7\u57285\u6708\u4efd\u8fde\u7eed\u7b2c\u4e8c\u4e2a\u6708\u4e0b\u8dcc\u8d85\u8fc73%\u3002<\/p>\n

Brown\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u968f\u7740\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u51b3\u5b9a\u57286\u67081\u65e5\u52a0\u606f50\u4e2a\u57fa\u70b9\uff0c\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u7684\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u884c\u4e1a\u5728\u592e\u884c\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u58f0\u660e\u4e2d\u5360\u636e\u7684\u7a7a\u95f4\u5f88\u5c0f\uff0c\u4ec5\u8868\u793a\u201c\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u5e02\u573a\u6d3b\u52a8\u6b63\u5728\u4ece\u5f02\u5e38\u9ad8\u7684\u6c34\u5e73\u653e\u7f13\u201d\u3002<\/p>\n

\u592e\u884c\u5c06\u4e8e6\u67089\u65e5\u53d1\u5e03\u51762022\u5e74\u91d1\u878d\u4f53\u7cfb\u8bc4\u4f30\u62a5\u544a\uff0c\u5c4a\u65f6\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u8be6\u7ec6\u4ecb\u7ecd\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u5e02\u573a\u653e\u7f13\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u3002<\/p>\n

\u968f\u7740\u901a\u8d27\u81a8\u80c0\u7387\u8fbe\u5230\u6570\u5341\u5e74\u6765\u7684\u9ad8\u4f4d\u2014\u2014\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u7269\u4ef7\u6307\u6570\u57284\u6708\u4efd\u98d9\u53476.8%\u2014\u2014\u592e\u884c\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u5b83\u5df2\u51c6\u5907\u597d\u901a\u8fc7\u66f4\u5f3a\u52b2\u7684\u52a0\u606f\u6765\u5e94\u5bf9\u4e0d\u65ad\u4e0a\u6da8\u7684\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u4ef7\u683c\u3002\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u592e\u884c\u884c\u957fTiff Macklem\u57284\u6708\u4efd\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u592e\u884c\u53ef\u4ee5\u6682\u65f6\u5c06\u9694\u591c\u5229\u7387\u4e0a\u8c03\u81f32%\u81f33%\u7684\u4e2d\u6027\u533a\u95f4\u4e4b\u4e0a\uff0c\u8fd9\u65e2\u4e0d\u4f1a\u5e2e\u52a9\u4e5f\u4e0d\u4f1a\u963b\u788d\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\u3002<\/p>\n

\u526f\u884c\u957fPaul Beaudry\u5728\u6700\u65b0\u653f\u7b56\u5229\u7387\u51b3\u5b9a\u4e00\u5929\u540e\u76846\u67082\u65e5\u8bb2\u8bdd\u4e2d\u56de\u5e94\u4e86\u8fd9\u4e00\u89c2\u70b9\uff0c\u79f0\u592e\u884c\u9700\u8981\u5c06\u57fa\u51c6\u5229\u7387\u81f3\u5c11\u63d0\u9ad8\u52303%\u4ee5\u6291\u5236\u901a\u80c0\u3002<\/p>\n

\u7136\u800c\uff0cBrown\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u5371\u9669\u5728\u4e8e\u592e\u884c\u5c06\u8bef\u5224\u5176\u79ef\u6781\u6536\u7d27\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u5e76\u53ef\u80fd\u5bfc\u81f4\u623f\u5c4b\u9500\u552e\u9677\u5165\u6df7\u4e71\u3002<\/p>\n

\u201c\u5982\u679c\u592e\u884c\u5c06\u653f\u7b56\u5229\u7387\u63d0\u9ad8\u52303.5%\u2026\u2026\u90a3\u4e48\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u5e02\u573a\u5c06\u9762\u4e34\u81ea1980\u5e74\u4ee3\u521d\u6c83\u5c14\u514b\u51b2\u51fb\uff08Volcker Shock\uff09\u4ee5\u6765\u6700\u4e25\u91cd\u7684\u53ef\u8d1f\u62c5\u6027\u6253\u51fb\uff0c\u201dBrown\u8bf4\uff0c\u4ed6\u6307\u7684\u662f\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u4e3b\u5e2dPaul Volcker\u79ef\u6781\u63d0\u9ad8\u5229\u7387\u7684\u65f6\u671f\u3002<\/p>\n

Brown\u8865\u5145\u8bf4\uff0c\u6839\u636e\u4ed6\u7684\u516c\u53f8\u7684\u4f30\u8ba1\uff0c3.5%\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u5229\u7387\u5c06\u4f7f\u5e73\u5747\u4e94\u5e74\u671f\u56fa\u5b9a\u5229\u7387\u62b5\u62bc\u8d37\u6b3e\u5229\u7387\u4e0a\u5347\u52304.5%\uff0c\u5e73\u5747\u6d6e\u52a8\u5229\u7387\u4e0a\u5347\u52304.9%\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5c3d\u7ba1\u4eca\u5e74\u5de5\u8d44\u589e\u957f\u52a0\u901f\uff0c\u4f46Capital Economics\u4f30\u8ba1\u8fd9\u4e9b\u62b5\u62bc\u8d37\u6b3e\u5229\u7387\u5c06\u4f7f\u8d2d\u623f\u8005\u80fd\u591f\u627f\u53d7\u7684\u6700\u9ad8\u623f\u4ef7\u964d\u4f4e23%\uff0c\u5e03\u6717\u4f30\u8ba1\u8fd9\u5c06\u4ea7\u751f\u56db\u500d\u4e8e\u524d\u4e09\u4e2a\u7d27\u7f29\u5468\u671f\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\uff08\u661f\u661f\u751f\u6d3b\/\u6377\u514b\u4f73\uff09\u72ec\u7acb\u5b8f\u89c2\u7814\u7a76\u673a\u6784Capital Economics\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u7684\u4e00\u4efd\u62a5\u544a\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u592e\u884c\u5728\u52a0\u606f\u65b9\u9762\u8fc7\u4e8e\u6fc0\u8fdb\uff0c\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u9762\u4e34\u56e0\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u5e02\u573a\u8fc5\u901f\u8c03\u6574\u800c\u5f15\u53d1\u7684\u8870\u9000\u98ce\u9669\u3002 \u636e\u91d1\u878d\u90ae\u62a5\u62a5\u9053\uff0c\u5728\u5468\u4e8c\u7684\u66f4\u65b0\u4e2d\uff0c\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u9ad8\u7ea7\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6Stephen Brown\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u592e\u884c\u4f3c\u4e4e\u5bf95\u6708\u4efd\u623f\u5c4b\u9500\u552e\u7684\u4e24\u4f4d\u6570\u4e0b…
Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":65471,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[3],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.jackjia.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/65469"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.jackjia.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.jackjia.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.jackjia.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.jackjia.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=65469"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/blog.jackjia.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/65469\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":65472,"href":"https:\/\/blog.jackjia.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/65469\/revisions\/65472"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.jackjia.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/65471"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.jackjia.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=65469"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.jackjia.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=65469"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.jackjia.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=65469"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}