\u661f\u5c9b\u65e5\u62a5\/\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u521a\u521a\u7ed3\u675f\u4e86\u8fd1\u5e74\u6765\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4e0a\u6700\u6349\u6478\u4e0d\u900f\u3001\u53cd\u8986\u65e0\u5e38\u7684\u4e00\u5e74\uff0c\u5c55\u671b\u672a\u6765\uff0c\u660e\u5e74\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u53ef\u80fd\u66f4\u65e0\u6cd5\u628a\u63e1\u3002<\/p>\n
\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u5bf9\u660e\u5e74\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u6beb\u65e0\u4fe1\u5fc3\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u4ed6\u4eec\u6839\u672c\u4e0d\u77e5\u9053\uff0c\u8f93\u5165\u7535\u8111\u6a21\u62df\u7a0b\u5e8f\u4e2d\u7684\u5047\u8bbe\u662f\u5426\u6b63\u786e\uff0c\u66f4\u65e0\u6cd5\u671f\u5f85\u8f93\u51fa\u7684\u7ed3\u8bba\u80fd\u5426\u51c6\u786e\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u5f97\u51fa\u7684\u201c\u4e8c\u91cd\u7ed3\u679c\u201d\u53ef\u88ab\u7406\u89e3\u4e3a\u76ee\u524d\u5728\u5e73\u884c\u8f68\u9053\u8fd0\u884c\u7684\u4e24\u5217\u706b\u8f66\uff0c\u6700\u540e\u53ef\u80fd\u5f00\u5411\u5b8c\u5168\u76f8\u53cd\u7684\u65b9\u5411\u3002<\/p>\n
\u5728\u4e00\u6761\u8f68\u9053\u4e0a\uff0c\u6b27\u6d32\u7684\u503a\u52a1\u95ee\u9898\u6fc0\u5316\u7206\u53d1\uff0c\u9707\u52a8\u5168\u7403\u91d1\u878d\u7cfb\u7edf\u3002\u5982\u540c2009\u5e74\uff0c\u5168\u4e16\u754c\u4fe1\u7528\u51bb\u7ed3\u3001\u7ecf\u6d4e\u653e\u7f13\u3001\u5546\u54c1\u4ef7\u683c\u66b4\u8dcc\uff0c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4e0a\u8d38\u6613\u6295\u8d44\u578b\u7684\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u4e5f\u88ab\u62d6\u5165\u7b2c\u4e8c\u6b21\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8870\u9000\uff0c\u7a0b\u5ea6\u53ef\u80fd\u548c3\u5e74\u524d\u4e00\u6837\u3002<\/p>\n
\u5728\u53e6\u4e00\u6761\u8f68\u9053\u4e0a\uff0c\u6b27\u6d32\u653f\u7b56\u5236\u8ba2\u8005\u6709\u80fd\u529b\u963b\u6b62\u5927\u8303\u56f4\u51fa\u8840\uff0c\u5e76\u80fd\u9884\u9632\u60c5\u51b5\u8513\u5ef6\u3002\u5e02\u573a\u91cd\u83b7\u6d3b\u529b\uff0c\u4fe1\u5fc3\u6062\u590d\u3001\u5927\u989d\u7684\u516c\u53f8\u6295\u8d44\u518d\u73b0\u3001\u5546\u54c1\u4ef7\u683c\u575a\u633a\u3001\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u51fa\u53e3\u56de\u5347\uff0c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7ee7\u7eed\u76ee\u524d\u7684\u9002\u5ea6\u6269\u5f20\u3002<\/p>\n
\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u9009\u62e9\u5176\u4e2d\u4e00\u6761\u8f68\u9053\uff0c\u51e0\u4e4e\u6ca1\u6709\u4efb\u4f55\u4e2d\u95f4\u8def\u7ebf\u3002\u7687\u5bb6\u94f6\u884c\u9996\u5e2d\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5e08\u8d56\u7279(Craig Wright)\u63d0\u5230\u7ecf\u6d4e\u9884\u6d4b\u65f6\u9047\u5230\u7684\u56f0\u5883\u65f6\u8bf4\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u51fa\u73b0\u975e\u5e38\u6781\u7aef\u7684\u4e8c\u9009\u4e00\u7684\u60c5\u5f62\u3002<\/p>\n
\u5e02\u573a\u662f\u8fd9\u79cd\u4e8c\u91cd\u56f0\u60d1\u7684\u6700\u597d\u8be0\u91ca\u3002\u81ea7\u6708\u5e95\u4ee5\u6765\uff0c\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u9762\u5bf9\u8fd9\u4e24\u6761\u5e73\u884c\u8f68\u9053\uff0c\u4e00\u76f4\u65e0\u6cd5\u505a\u51fa\u51b3\u5b9a\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u4ece\u4e00\u6761\u8f68\u9053\u8df3\u5230\u53e6\u4e00\u6761\u8f68\u9053\uff0c\u6839\u636e\u6700\u65b0\u65b0\u95fb\u548c\u6709\u5173\u54ea\u6761\u8f68\u9053\u662f\u771f\u6b63\u65b9\u5411\u7684\u4f20\u8a00\u8d4c\u4e0b\u6570\u5341\u4ebf\u5143\u3002<\/p>\n
\u5230\u76ee\u524d\u4e3a\u6b62\uff0c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5e08\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u4e2d\u592e\u94f6\u884c\u884c\u957f\u5361\u5c3c(Mark Carney)\uff0c\u90fd\u8d4c\u5b9a\u6b27\u6d32\u4f1a\u5ea6\u8fc7\u96be\u5173\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u9700\u8981\u4fee\u590d\u4e00\u4e9b\u88c2\u7f1d\uff0c\u4f46\u5e94\u8be5\u53ef\u907f\u514d\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5d29\u6e83\u3002\u6b63\u56e0\u4e3a\u6b64\uff0c\u5927\u591a\u6570\u7ecf\u6d4e\u9884\u6d4b\u673a\u6784\u90fd\u4e00\u81f4\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u7ecf\u6d4e\u660e\u5e74\u4f1a\u7ee7\u7eed\u589e\u957f2%\u5de6\u53f3\uff0c\u8303\u56f4\u57281.5%\u52302.5%\u4e4b\u95f4\u3002\u592e\u884c\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u8fd1\u4e4e\u4f4d\u4e8e\u8fd9\u4e00\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u4e2d\u95f4\u503c\uff0c\u4e3a1.9%\u3002<\/p>\n
\u6309\u7167\u8fd9\u79cd\u9884\u6d4b\uff0c\u52a0\u56fd\u804c\u4f4d\u6570\u91cf\u53ef\u671b\u7ee7\u7eed\u589e\u957f\uff0c\u6bcf\u6708\u589e\u5e45\u57281\u4e07\u52301.5\u4e07\u4e2a\u4e4b\u95f4\uff0c\u4f46\u589e\u957f\u7684\u804c\u4f4d\u6570\u76ee\u4e0d\u591f\u5438\u6536\u8fdb\u5165\u804c\u573a\u7684\u65b0\u4eba\u6570\u91cf\u3002\u53e6\u5916\uff0c\u85aa\u6c34\u589e\u957f\u4e5f\u4f1a\u7ee7\u7eed\u53d7\u5230\u6291\u5236\uff0c\u589e\u5e45\u5f88\u96be\u8ddf\u4e0a\u901a\u80c0\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u4f4e\u4e8e\u901a\u80c0\u3002<\/p>\n
\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5e08\u8bf4\uff0c\u8fd9\u5e76\u975e\u4ec0\u4e48\u597d\u6d88\u606f\uff0c\u4f46\u5f3a\u8fc7\u53e6\u4e00\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\uff0c\u5373\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8870\u9000\u548c\u804c\u4f4d\u5927\u91cf\u4e27\u5931\u3002\u4e30\u4e1a\u8d44\u672c(Scotia Capital)\u7ecf\u6d4e\u526f\u603b\u88c1\u970d\u5c14\u7279(Derek Holt)\u8bf4\uff0c\u53ea\u8981\u6b27\u6d32\u8fd8\u5728\u8e52\u8dda\u524d\u8fdb\uff0c\u5bf9\u52a0\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u800c\u8a00\u90fd\u5e94\u8be5\u6ca1\u6709\u592a\u574f\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u4ed6\u79f0\uff1a\u201c\u6211\u4eec\u6ca1\u6709\u5927\u7684\u8d38\u6613\u8054\u7cfb\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u94f6\u884c\u4e1a\u76f4\u63a5\u5173\u7cfb\u6700\u5c0f\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u6211\u4eec\u4ece\u52a0\u5143\u8d2c\u503c\u53ca\u5229\u7387\u4e0b\u964d\u4e2d\u83b7\u76ca\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n
\u4e2d\u56fd\u8f6f\u7740\u9646\u6253\u51fb\u52a0\u62ff\u5927<\/p>\n
\u76ee\u524d\u9884\u8ba1\uff0c2011\u5e74\u7684\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6709\u671b\u589e\u957f2.3%\uff0c\u5c31\u4e1a\u6570\u5b57\u5c31\u53ef\u80fd\u589e\u52a0\u7ea620\u4e07\u3002\u4e0e\u6b64\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u4e00\u5411\u60b2\u89c2\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u673a\u6784\uff0c\u5982\u8c18\u8be2\u516c\u53f8\u8d44\u672c\u7ecf\u6d4e(Capital Economics)\uff0c\u867d\u7136\u9884\u8ba1\u6b27\u6d32\u4f1a\u6709\u4e24\u5e74\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8870\u9000\uff0c\u4f46\u4e5f\u6ca1\u6709\u79f0\u5168\u7403\u4f1a\u51fa\u73b02008\u5e74\u79cb\u5b63\u90a3\u6837\u7684\u94f6\u884c\u4e1a\u5d29\u6e83\u3002<\/p>\n
\u9053\u660e\u94f6\u884c(TD Bank)\u9996\u5e2d\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5e08\u4e9a\u5386\u5c71\u5927(Craig Alexander)\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u6700\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u51fa\u73b0\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u662f\uff0c\u6b27\u6d32\u653f\u7b56\u5236\u8ba2\u8005\u80fd\u591f\u907f\u514d\u6700\u574f\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c\u5373\u4fbf\u5982\u6b64\uff0c\u6b27\u6d32\u4ecd\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u5df2\u7ecf\u9009\u5165\u8870\u9000\uff0c\u5e76\u9020\u6210\u8fde\u9501\u53cd\u5e94\uff0c\u5f71\u54cd\u5230\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u3002\u6700\u4e3a\u76f4\u63a5\u7684\u8054\u7cfb\u662f\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u6b27\u6d32\u662f\u4e2d\u56fd\u6700\u5927\u7684\u51fa\u53e3\u5e02\u573a\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f1a\u56e0\u6b64\u8f6f\u7740\u9646\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7684\u8f6f\u7740\u9646\u4f1a\u4ee4\u5176\u5bf9\u77f3\u6cb9\u548c\u91d1\u5c5e\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u5546\u54c1\u9700\u6c42\u51cf\u5c11\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5546\u54c1\u7684\u4ef7\u683c\u4f1a\u964d\u4f4e\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u7275\u7d2f\u5230\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u3002<\/p>\n
\u4e9a\u5386\u5c71\u5927\u8bf4\uff0c\u90a3\u4e9b\u9884\u8ba1\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f1a\u66f4\u52a0\u5f3a\u5065\u6216\u7a33\u5b9a\u53cd\u5f39\u7684\u4eba\u58eb\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u81ea\u6b3a\u6b3a\u4eba\u3002<\/p>\n
\u8d44\u6599\u6765\u6e90\uff1a\u52a0\u901a\u793e<\/p>\n
2012\u7ecf\u6d4e\u672a\u7a33 \u534e\u5546\u4e3b\u5b88<\/strong><\/p>\n \u660e\u62a5\/\u4eca\u5929\u662f2012\u5e74\u7684\u7b2c\u4e00\u65e5\uff0c\u65b0\u5e74\u65b0\u5e0c\u671b\uff0c\u662f\u6bcf\u4e2a\u4eba\u90fd\u4f1a\u6709\uff0c\u5bf9\u4e8e\u505a\u751f\u610f\u4eba\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u5c55\u671b\u65b0\u7684\u4e00\u5e74\u8425\u5546\u73af\u5883\u5c24\u5176\u91cd\u8981\u3002\u7531\u4e8e\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4ecd\u53d7\u91d1\u878d\u6d77\u5578\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u52a0\u4e0a\u6253\u51fb\u5168\u7403\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4e25\u91cd\u7684\u201c\u6b27\u503a\u5371\u673a\u201d\uff0c\u81f4\u672c\u5730\u534e\u88d4\u5bf92012\u5e74\u7684\u8425\u5546\u73af\u5883\u5c55\u671b\uff0c\u90fd\u6301\u8c28\u614e\u6001\u5ea6\u3002<\/p>\n \u672c\u62a5\u5206\u522b\u8bbf\u95ee\u4e863\u4f4d\u534e\u5546\u4f1a\u4f1a\u957f\uff0c\u7efc\u5408\u4ed6\u4eec\u6240\u8bf4\u90fd\u8ba4\u4e3a\u4eca\u5e74\u5546\u4eba\u90fd\u4f1a\u6301\u4fdd\u5b88\u6001\u5ea6\uff0c\u4ee5\u5148\u7a33\u56fa\u73b0\u6709\u751f\u610f\u4e3a\u4e3b\uff0c\u6269\u5c55\u65b0\u4e1a\u52a1\u5c06\u653e\u5728\u540e\u4e00\u6b65\u3002<\/p>\n \u5bc6\u897f\u6c99\u52a0\u534e\u5546\u4f1a\u4f1a\u957f\u6731\u6d2a\u6069\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53bb\u5e74\u5927\u4e0d\u5982\u610f\uff0c\u52a0\u56fd\u53c8\u662f\u7f8e\u56fd\u6700\u5927\u8d38\u6613\u4f19\u4f34\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u7f8e\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6b20\u4f73\uff0c\u76f4\u63a5\u5f71\u54cd\u52a0\u56fd\u3002<\/p>\n \u4ed6\u76f8\u4fe1\u5546\u4eba\u5728\u65b0\u7684\u4e00\u5e74\u5728\u591a\u79cd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4e0d\u660e\u6717\u56e0\u7d20\u4e0b\uff0c\u4e0d\u4f1a\u4f5c\u51fa\u4e00\u4e9b\u5982\u65b0\u8d2d\u5382\u623f\u53ca\u673a\u5668\u7b49\u6269\u5c55\u4e1a\u52a1\u884c\u4e3a\u3002<\/p>\n 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