{"id":15070,"date":"2010-03-10T03:08:43","date_gmt":"2010-03-10T08:08:43","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blog.jackjia.com\/?p=15070"},"modified":"2010-03-10T03:08:43","modified_gmt":"2010-03-10T08:08:43","slug":"20100310%e7%bb%9f%e8%ae%a1%e5%b1%80%e9%a2%84%e6%b5%8b%ef%bc%9a2031%e5%b9%b4%e5%8a%a0%e5%9b%bd%e4%ba%ba%e5%8f%a3%e5%8d%8e%e8%a3%94%e9%ab%98%e8%be%be300%e4%b8%87","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blog.jackjia.com\/?p=15070","title":{"rendered":"20100310\/\u7edf\u8ba1\u5c40\u9884\u6d4b\uff1a2031\u5e74\u52a0\u56fd\u4eba\u53e3\u534e\u88d4\u9ad8\u8fbe300\u4e07"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>\u591a\u5e02\u534e\u88d4\u4eba\u53e3 21\u5e74\u500d\u589e\u81f3110\u4e07<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u660e\u62a5\/\u6839\u636e\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u7edf\u8ba1\u5c40\u6628\u65e5\u53d1\u8868\u7684\u6700\u65b0\u62a5\u544a\uff0c\u672c\u56fd\u7684\u534e\u88d4\u4eba\u53e3\u4f1a\u572821\u5e74\u540e\u589e\u52a0\u5230300\u4e07\u3002\u5176\u4e2d\u5728\u672c\u56fd\u6700\u5927\u7684\u57ce\u5e02\u591a\u4f26\u591a\uff0c\u534e\u88d4\u4eba\u53e3\u9884\u8ba1\u5c4a\u65f6\u5c06\u53ef\u8fbe\u5230110\u4e07\uff0c\u7ee7\u7eed\u662f\u8be5\u5e02\u7b2c\u4e8c\u5927\u7684\u6709\u8272\u5c11\u6570\u65cf\u88d4\u7fa4\u4f53\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u7edf\u8ba1\u5c40\u8fd9\u4efd\u5173\u4e8e\u672c\u56fd\u4eba\u53e3\u591a\u6837\u5316\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u63a8\u7b97\u672c\u56fd\u7684\u534e\u88d4\u4eba\u53e3\u7ea6\u572821\u5e74\u540e\u5c06\u4f1a\u589e\u52a0\u8d85\u8fc71\u500d\uff0c\u75312006\u5e74\u4eba\u53e3\u666e\u67e5\u65f6\u7684130\u4e07\uff0c\u589e\u52a0\u81f32021\u5e74\u7684210\u4e07\uff0c\u52302031\u5e74\u7684240\u4e07\u81f3300\u4e07\u4e4b\u95f4\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6709\u8272\u5c11\u6570\u65cf\u88d4\u4eba\u53e3 \u534e\u88d4\u6bd4\u4f8b\u964d<\/p>\n<p>\u5c3d\u7ba1\u5982\u6b64\uff0c\u4f46\u534e\u88d4\u5360\u5168\u56fd\u6709\u8272\u5c11\u6570\u65cf\u88d4\u4eba\u53e3\u7684\u6bd4\u4f8b\uff0c\u5219\u4f1a\u75312006\u5e74\u768424%\uff0c\u4e0b\u964d\u81f32031\u5e74\u768421%\uff0c\u6bd4\u4f8b\u4ecd\u662f\u4e0d\u4f1a\u8d85\u8d8a\u672c\u56fd\u76ee\u524d\u6700\u5927\u7684\u5c11\u6570\u65cf\u88d4\u7fa4\u4f53\u2500\u2500\u5357\u4e9a\u88d4\u3002\u5230\u4e862031\u5e74\uff0c\u672c\u56fd\u7684\u5357\u4e9a\u88d4\u4eba\u6570\u5c06\u589e\u52a0\u5230320\u4e07\u81f3410\u4e07\uff0c\u5360\u5168\u56fd\u6709\u8272\u5c11\u6570\u65cf\u88d4\u4eba\u53e3\u6bd4\u4f8b\u768428%\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u7edf\u8ba1\u5c40\u5206\u6790\u5458\u79d1\u5170(Eric Coran)\u6628\u65e5\u5411\u672c\u62a5\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u867d\u7136\u672c\u56fd\u7684\u534e\u88d4\u548c\u5357\u4e9a\u88d4\u4eba\u53e3\u589e\u957f\uff0c\u90fd\u662f\u6709\u76f8\u8fd1\u6570\u76ee\u7684\u6765\u52a0\u79fb\u6c11\u4eba\u53e3\u6765\u7ef4\u6301\uff0c\u4f46\u534e\u88d4\u5728\u6709\u8272\u5c11\u6570\u65cf\u88d4\u4eba\u53e3\u6bd4\u4f8b\u4e2d\u5374\u88ab\u5357\u4e9a\u88d4\u6bd4\u4e0b\u53bb\uff0c\u4e3b\u8981\u662f\u7531\u4e8e\u534e\u88d4\u5973\u6027\u751f\u80b2\u7387\u6301\u7eed\u4f4e\uff0c\u800c\u9020\u6210\u4e86\u4e24\u8005\u4eba\u53e3\u589e\u957f\u7684\u5dee\u522b\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u79d1\u5170\u79f0\uff0c\u57282001\u5e74\u53ca2006\u5e74\u7684\u4eba\u53e3\u666e\u67e5\uff0c\u5df2\u53d1\u73b0\u672c\u56fd\u7684\u534e\u88d4\u5973\u6027\u7684\u751f\u80b2\u7387\u504f\u4f4e\uff0c\u662f\u5168\u56fd\u6240\u6709\u4e0d\u540c\u65cf\u88d4\u4e4b\u4e2d\uff0c\u6700\u4f4e\u7684\u5176\u4e2d\u4e00\u4e2a\u65cf\u88d4\uff0c\u4e0d\u50cf\u5357\u4e9a\u88d4\u5973\u6027\u822c\u9ad8\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u534e\u88d4\u5973\u6027\u751f\u80b2\u7387\u4f4e \u4eba\u53e3\u96be\u654c\u5357\u4e9a\u88d4<\/p>\n<p>\u57282006\u5e74\uff0c\u534e\u88d4\u5973\u6027\u7684\u751f\u80b2\u7387\uff0c\u5e73\u5747\u6bcf\u4eba\u751f1.2\u540d\u5b69\u5b50\uff0c\u8fdc\u4f4e\u4e8e\u5168\u56fd\u5e73\u5747\u76841.6\u540d\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u7edf\u8ba1\u5c40\u5e76\u9884\u6599\u672c\u56fd\u7684\u6d77\u5916\u51fa\u751f\u7684\u4eba\u53e3\uff0c\u5c06\u5728\u672a\u676521\u5e74\u91cc\u7ee7\u7eed\u589e\u957f\uff0c\u5230\u4e862031\u5e74\uff0c\u5c06\u8fbe\u5230980\u4e07\u81f31250\u4e07\uff0c\u5360\u4e86\u4eba\u53e3\u6bd4\u4f8b\u768425\u81f328%\u3002\u800c\u5728\u6d77\u5916\u51fa\u751f\u7684\u4eba\u53e3\u5f53\u4e2d\uff0c\u7ea655%\u90fd\u662f\u5728\u4e9a\u6d32\u51fa\u751f\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u81f3\u4e8e\u672c\u56fd\u7684\u603b\u4eba\u53e3\u5c06\u5728\u672a\u676521\u5e74\u5185\uff0c\u6709\u8fbe\u5230\u4e09\u5206\u4e00\u4e3a\u6709\u8272\u5c11\u6570\u65cf\u88d4\uff0c\u4eba\u6570\u8fbe\u52301440\u4e07\u5de6\u53f3\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5982\u4e0a\u8ff0\u6240\u63d0\u5230\uff0c\u534e\u88d4\u5360\u5f53\u4e2d\u7684\u6bd4\u4f8b\uff0c\u572821\u5e74\u540e\u5c06\u964d\u81f321%\uff0c\u800c\u5357\u4e9a\u88d4\u5219\u4f1a\u589e\u81f328%\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u591a\u5e02\u6709\u8272\u65cf\u88d4\u4eba\u53e3\u5c06\u589e\u81f363%<\/p>\n<p>\u53e6\u5916\uff0c\u4eca\u6b21\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u5e76\u9884\u6d4b\uff0c\u672c\u56fd\u6700\u5927\u57ce\u5e02\u7684\u4eba\u53e3\u9762\u8c8c\uff0c\u5c06\u4f1a\u6709\u5267\u70c8\u7684\u8f6c\u53d8\u3002\u5982\u5728\u591a\u4f26\u591a\uff0c\u767d\u4eba\u5c06\u4f1a\u5728\u672a\u676521\u5e74\u5185\u6210\u4e3a\u4e86\u5e02\u5185\u7684\u5c11\u6570\u4eba\u53e3\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u5230\u4e862031\u5e74\uff0c\u5e02\u5185\u7684\u6709\u8272\u5c11\u6570\u65cf\u88d4\u4eba\u53e3\u5c06\u4f1a\u589e\u81f3\u7ea663%\uff0c\u6bd42006\u5e74\u65f6\u768443%\u589e\u52a0\u4e8620%\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5176\u4e2d\uff0c\u534e\u88d4\u5c06\u7ee7\u7eed\u662f\u5e02\u5185\u7b2c\u4e8c\u5927\u7684\u6709\u8272\u5c11\u6570\u65cf\u88d4\u7fa4\u4f53\uff0c\u4eba\u6570\u4ec5\u6b21\u4e8e\u5357\u4e9a\u88d4\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u591a\u5e02\u7684\u534e\u88d4\u4eba\u53e3\u572821\u5e74\u540e\u5c06\u4f1a\u589e\u52a0\u8d85\u8fc71\u500d\uff0c\u7531\u73b0\u65f6\u768451\u4e07\u589e\u81f32021\u5e74\u65f6\u768487.5\u4e07\uff0c\u52302031\u5e74\u65f6\u7684110\u4e07\u3002\u5c4a\u65f6\uff0c\u534e\u88d4\u4eba\u53e3\u6240\u5360\u7684\u591a\u5e02\u603b\u4eba\u53e3\u6bd4\u4f8b\u662f12.4%\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u534e\u88d4\u5217\u5351\u8bd7\u6700\u5927\u5c11\u6570\u65cf\u88d4<\/strong><br \/>\n\u589e\u81f381\u4e07 \u4fa8\u52a1\u673a\u6784\u4fc3\u53ca\u65e9\u90e8\u7f72\u79fb\u6c11\u653f\u7b56<\/p>\n<p>\u660e\u62a5\/\u5927\u6e29\u5730\u533a\u5c11\u6570\u65cf\u88d4\u4eba\u53e3\u5728\u672a\u676521\u5e74\u5c06\u4f1a\u6210\u4e3a\u4e3b\u6d41\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u534e\u88d4\u4eba\u53e3\u5c06\u4f1a\u589e\u500d\uff0c\u75312006\u5e7440\u4e07\u4eba\u589e\u52a0\u81f381\u4e07\uff0c\u51e0\u4e4e\u6bcf4\u4e2a\u4eba\u5f53\u4e2d\uff0c\u4fbf\u67091\u4eba\u662f\u534e\u88d4\u80cc\u666f\u3002\u6574\u4e2a\u5927\u6e29\u5730\u533a\uff0c\u63a5\u8fd1\u4e03\u6210\u4eba\u53e3\u662f\u5c11\u6570\u65cf\u88d4\u80cc\u666f\uff0c\u800c\u6700\u5927\u7684\u65cf\u88d4\u4ecd\u5c06\u662f\u534e\u88d4\u53ca\u5370\u88d4\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4e0d\u8fc7\uff0c\u867d\u7136\u534e\u88d4\u4eba\u53e3\u4ecd\u5c06\u4f4d\u5217\u5351\u8bd7\u5c11\u6570\u65cf\u88d4\u9996\u4f4d\uff0c\u4f46\u5168\u56fd\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u5374\u4e0d\u540c\uff0c\u534e\u88d4\u7684\u4eba\u53e3\u6bd4\u4f8b\u5c06\u4e0b\u964d\uff0c\u5168\u56fd\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u5370\u88d4\u624d\u662f\u6700\u5927\u5c11\u6570\u65cf\u88d4\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u7edf\u8ba1\u5c40\u53ca\u52a0\u897f\u53ca\u80b2\u7a7a\u5730\u533a\u53d1\u8a00\u4eba\u6881\u633a\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u534e\u88d4\u5728\u672a\u676521\u5e74\uff0c\u4ecd\u7136\u662f\u5927\u6e29\u5730\u533a\u6700\u5927\u7684\u5c11\u6570\u65cf\u88d4\u793e\u7fa4\uff0c\u4eba\u53e3\u66f4\u4f1a\u8f832006\u5e74\u7ffb\u4e00\u7ffb\uff1b\u75312006\u5e7439.6\u4e07\u4eba\u589e\u52a0\u81f32031\u5e74\u768480.9\u4e07\u4eba\u800c\u534e\u88d4\u4eba\u53e3\u7684\u6bd4\u4f8b\u4e5f\u7531\u5360\u4eba\u53e3\u768418%\u589e\u52a0\u81f323%\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5230\u4e862031\u5e74\uff0c\u5927\u6e29\u5730\u533a\u7684\u5c11\u6570\u65cf\u88d4\u4eba\u53e3\u5360\u603b\u4eba\u53e3\u768460%\uff0c\u6570\u76ee\u8fbe200\u4e07\u4eba\uff0c\u5f53\u4e2d\u53ea\u6709\u4e09\u5206\u4e4b\u4e00\u662f\u5728\u52a0\u56fd\u51fa\u751f\u7684\u5c11\u6570\u65cf\u88d4\u3002\u5982\u679c\u5c06\u7b2c\u4e00\u4ee3\u53ca\u7b2c\u4e8c\u4ee3\u79fb\u6c11\u4e5f\u7b97\u8fdb\u53bb\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u5c4a\u65f670%\u5927\u6e29\u5730\u533a\u4eba\u53e3\u662f\u79fb\u6c11\u6216\u8005\u662f\u79fb\u6c11\u540e\u4ee3\u7684\u80cc\u666f\uff0c\u6240\u5360\u7684\u6bd4\u4f8b\u4ec5\u6b21\u4e8e\u5168\u56fd\u6700\u5927\u57ce\u5e02\u591a\u4f26\u591a\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u96c7\u4e3b\u5e94\u5316\u89e3\u4e0d\u540c\u65cf\u88d4\u5458\u5de5\u77db\u76fe<\/p>\n<p>\u4ee5\u6e29\u54e5\u534e\u4e3a\u57fa\u5730\u7684\u667a\u56ca\u7ec4\u7ec7\u57ce\u5e02\u672a\u6765\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u5fc3(Urban Futures Institute)\u884c\u653f\u603b\u88c1\u62c9\u83ab(Andrew Ramlo)\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u968f\ue2e5\u5c11\u6570\u65cf\u7fa4\u5728\u5927\u6e29\u5730\u533a\u6210\u4e3a\u5927\u591a\u6570\uff0c\u96c7\u4e3b\u4eec\u4e5f\u5e94\u8be5\u5728\u5de5\u4f5c\u6587\u5316\u65b9\u9762\u4f5c\u51fa\u8c03\u6574\uff0c\u4ece\u5904\u7406\u4e0d\u540c\u80cc\u666f\u5458\u5de5\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u77db\u76fe\uff0c\u4ee5\u81f3\u5728\u5de5\u4f5c\u65f6\u7684\u6c9f\u901a\u8bed\u8a00\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u662f\u5426\u9700\u8981\u5728\u5de5\u4f5c\u5b89\u5168\u6307\u5f15\uff0c\u589e\u52a0\u5982\u4e2d\u6587\u3001\u897f\u73ed\u7259\u6587\uff0c\u4ee5\u65b9\u4fbf\u5bf9\u82f1\u6587\u672a\u5fc5\u80fd\u591f\u5b8c\u5168\u638c\u63e1\u7684\u5458\u5de5\uff0c\u90fd\u662f\u8981\u9762\u5bf9\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4e2d\u4fa8\u4e92\u52a9\u4f1a\u884c\u653f\u603b\u88c1\u9648\u5fd7\u52a8\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u867d\u7136\u534e\u88d4\u53ca\u5176\u4ed6\u5c11\u6570\u65cf\u88d4\u4eba\u53e3\u5728\u672a\u676521\u5e74\u6e10\u6210\u4e3a\u52a0\u56fd\u4e3b\u6d41\uff0c\u53ef\u60dc\u4e24\u7ea7\u653f\u5e9c\u4e00\u76f4\u4ee5\u6765\uff0c\u90fd\u7f3a\u4e4f\u5168\u9762\u6027\u5b89\u987f\u5c11\u6570\u65cf\u88d4\u7684\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u8fd9\u4efd\u62a5\u544a\u53ef\u4ee5\u4f5c\u4e3a\u63d0\u9192\u51b3\u7b56\u5236\u8ba2\u8005\uff0c\u5e94\u8be5\u53ca\u65e9\u4f5c\u51fa\u90e8\u7f72\u3002\u800c\u534e\u88d4\u793e\u7fa4\u4e5f\u5e94\u8be5\u52aa\u529b\u878d\u5165\u793e\u4f1a\uff0c\u4ee5\u514d\u88ab\u8fb9\u7f18\u5316\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u9648\u5fd7\u52a8\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u5bf9\u79fb\u6c11\u5b89\u987f\u3001\u878d\u5165\u793e\u4f1a\u65b9\u9762\u90fd\u6ca1\u6709\ue2e5\u58a8\uff0c\u663e\u793a\u653f\u5e9c\u51b3\u7b56\u5c42\u9762\u5728\u8fd9\u65b9\u9762\u7684\u654f\u611f\u5ea6\u4e0d\u8db3\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6628\u65e5\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u7edf\u8ba1\u5c40\u7684\u4eba\u53e3\u5c55\u671b\u62a5\u544a\uff0c\u5e0c\u671b\u53ef\u4ee5\u5524\u9192\u51b3\u7b56\u5f53\u5c40\uff0c21\u5e74\u5f88\u5feb\u4fbf\u4f1a\u5230\u4e34\uff0c\u73b0\u65f6\u4fbf\u5e94\u8be5\u5728\u5982\u4f55\u534f\u52a9\u65b0\u79fb\u6c11\u5728\u5c31\u4e1a\u3001\u6559\u80b2\u53ca\u533b\u7597\u670d\u52a1\u65b9\u9762\u4f5c\u51fa\u914d\u5408\u3002\u5982\u5c06\u82f1\u8bed\u4f5c\u4e3a\u7b2c\u4e8c\u8bed\u8a00\u4ee5\u53ca\u5176\u4ed6\u79fb\u6c11\u5b66\u751f\u7684\u9002\u5e94\u8bfe\u7a0b\u5e94\u8be5\u6210\u4e3a\u666e\u901a\u670d\u52a1\u800c\u975e\u7279\u6b8a\u8bfe\u7a0b\u3002\u800c\u533b\u7597\u53ca\u8001\u4eba\u670d\u52a1\u65b9\u9762\u4e5f\u5e94\u8be5\u57f9\u517b\u66f4\u591a\u61c2\u4e2d\u6587\u7684\u4ece\u4e1a\u5458\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u591a\u5e02\u534e\u88d4\u4eba\u53e3 21\u5e74\u500d\u589e\u81f3110\u4e07 \u660e\u62a5\/\u6839\u636e\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u7edf\u8ba1\u5c40\u6628\u65e5\u53d1\u8868\u7684\u6700\u65b0\u62a5\u544a\uff0c\u672c\u56fd\u7684\u534e\u88d4\u4eba\u53e3\u4f1a\u572821\u5e74\u540e\u589e\u52a0\u5230300\u4e07\u3002\u5176\u4e2d\u5728\u672c\u56fd\u6700\u5927\u7684\u57ce\u5e02\u591a\u4f26\u591a\uff0c\u534e\u88d4\u4eba\u53e3\u9884\u8ba1\u5c4a\u65f6\u5c06\u53ef\u8fbe\u5230110\u4e07\uff0c\u7ee7\u7eed\u662f\u8be5\u5e02\u7b2c\u4e8c\u5927\u7684\u6709\u8272\u5c11\u6570\u65cf\u88d4\u7fa4\u4f53\u3002 \u7edf\u8ba1\u5c40\u8fd9\u4efd\u5173\u4e8e\u672c\u56fd\u4eba\u53e3\u591a\u6837\u5316\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u63a8\u7b97\u672c\u56fd\u7684\u534e\u88d4\u4eba\u53e3\u7ea6\u572821\u5e74\u540e\u5c06\u4f1a\u589e\u52a0\u8d85&#8230;<br \/><a class=\"read-more-button\" href=\"https:\/\/blog.jackjia.com\/?p=15070\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[10],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.jackjia.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15070"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.jackjia.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.jackjia.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.jackjia.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.jackjia.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=15070"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/blog.jackjia.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15070\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.jackjia.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=15070"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.jackjia.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=15070"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.jackjia.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=15070"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}