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\u4e9a\u5f53\u00b7\u65af\u5bc6\u9057\u6f0f\u4e86\u4ec0\u4e48<\/strong><\/p>\n \u4f5c\u8005\uff1aMacroMarkets\u8054\u5408\u521b\u529e\u4eba\u517c\u9996\u5e2d\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u7f57\u4f2f\u7279\u2022\u5e0c\u52d2(Robert Shiller)\u4e3a\u82f1\u56fd\u300a\u91d1\u878d\u65f6\u62a5\u300b\u64b0\u7a3f 2009-03-11<\/p>\n \u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u7ea6\u7ff0\u2022\u6885\u7eb3\u5fb7\u2022\u51ef\u6069\u65af(John Maynard Keynes)\u7684\u59bb\u5b50\u8389\u8fea\u5a05\u2022\u6d1b\u666e\u79d1\u5a03(Lydia Lopokova)\u662f\u4e00\u4f4d\u8457\u540d\u7684\u82ad\u857e\u821e\u6f14\u5458\u3002\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u5979\u4e5f\u662f\u4e00\u540d\u4fc4\u88d4\u6d41\u4ea1\u8005\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u51ef\u6069\u65af\u4ece\u5176\u59fb\u4eb2\u7684\u7ecf\u5386\u4e2d\uff0c\u4e86\u89e3\u5230\u751f\u6d3b\u5728\u6700\u7cdf\u7cd5\u7684\u793e\u4f1a\u4e3b\u4e49\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4e2d\u7684\u6050\u6016\u3002\u4e0d\u8fc7\uff0c\u4ed6\u4e5f\u5207\u8eab\u4f53\u4f1a\u5230\u4e86\u4e0d\u53d7\u76d1\u7ba1\u3001\u653e\u4efb\u81ea\u7531\u7684\u8d44\u672c\u4e3b\u4e49\u5f15\u53d1\u7684\u5de8\u5927\u56f0\u96be\u3002\u4ed6\u5b8c\u6574\u7ecf\u5386\u4e86\u82f1\u56fd\u4e0a\u4e16\u7eaa20\u5e74\u4ee3\u81f330\u5e74\u4ee3\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8427\u6761\u3002\u51ef\u6069\u65af\u56e0\u6b64\u53d7\u5230\u542f\u53d1\uff0c\u5e0c\u671b\u4e3a\u73b0\u4ee3\u7ecf\u6d4e\u627e\u5230\u4e00\u6761\u4e2d\u95f4\u8def\u7ebf\u3002 <\/p>\n 20\u4e16\u7eaa\u6700\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u8457\u4f5c<\/p>\n \u5728\u5f53\u524d\u91d1\u878d\u5371\u673a\u4e2d\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u770b\u5230\u4e86\u51ef\u6069\u65af\u4e3b\u4e49\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u7684\u590d\u6d3b\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u91cd\u65b0\u5f00\u59cb\u8c08\u8bba\u4ed6\u5728\u5927\u8427\u6761\u65f6\u671f\u64b0\u5199\u30011936\u5e74\u51fa\u7248\u7684\u300a\u5c31\u4e1a\u3001\u5229\u606f\u548c\u8d27\u5e01\u901a\u8bba\u300b(The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money\uff09\u4e00\u4e66\u3002\u8fd9\u4e2a\u65f6\u671f\u8ddf\u73b0\u5728\u4e00\u6837\uff0c\u51fa\u73b0\u4e86\u8bb8\u591a\u7ed3\u675f\u6211\u4eec\u6240\u77e5\u9053\u7684\u8d44\u672c\u4e3b\u4e49\u7684\u547c\u58f0\u3002\u4e0a\u4e16\u7eaa30\u5e74\u4ee3\u88ab\u79f0\u4e3a\u5171\u4ea7\u4e3b\u4e49\u601d\u6f6e\u5728\u897f\u65b9\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u9f0e\u76db\u65f6\u671f\u3002\u51ef\u6069\u65af\u7684\u4e2d\u95f4\u8def\u7ebf\u4f1a\u907f\u514d\u8d44\u672c\u4e3b\u4e49\u7684\u5931\u4e1a\u3001\u6050\u614c\u548c\u72c2\u70ed\u3002\u4f46\u5b83\u4e5f\u4f1a\u907f\u514d\u5171\u4ea7\u4e3b\u4e49\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u548c\u653f\u6cbb\u63a7\u5236\u3002\u7531\u4e8e\u5176\u660e\u667a\u7684\u5e73\u8861\u601d\u60f3\uff0c\u300a\u901a\u8bba\u300b\u6210\u4e8620\u4e16\u7eaa\u6700\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u8457\u4f5c\u3002<\/p>\n \u5728\u9ad8\u5931\u4e1a\u7387\u65f6\u671f\uff0c\u53ef\u4fe1\u5ea6\u826f\u597d\u7684\u653f\u5e9c\u5e94\u8be5\u901a\u8fc7\u8d64\u5b57\u5f00\u652f\u6269\u5927\u9700\u6c42\u3002\u800c\u5728\u4f4e\u5931\u4e1a\u7387\u65f6\u671f\uff0c\u653f\u5e9c\u5e94\u8be5\u5f52\u8fd8\u56e0\u6b64\u6b20\u4e0b\u7684\u503a\u52a1\u3002\u901a\u8fc7\u8fd9\u6837\u4e00\u4e2a\u8868\u9762\u4e0a\u770b\u6765\u975e\u5e38\u5fae\u5c0f\u7684\u7a0b\u5e8f\u53d8\u52a8\uff0c\u8d44\u672c\u4e3b\u4e49\u4f53\u7cfb\u5c31\u53ef\u4ee5\u4fdd\u6301\u7a33\u5b9a\uff0c\u800c\u65e0\u9700\u5f7b\u5e95\u7684\u201c\u5916\u79d1\u624b\u672f\u201d\u3002<\/p>\n 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\u52a8\u7269\u7cbe\u795e<\/p>\n \u8fd9\u4e00\u6d1e\u89c1\u7684\u5173\u952e\uff0c\u5728\u4e8e\u51ef\u6069\u65af\u7ed9\u4eba\u4eec\u7684\u5fc3\u7406\u52a8\u673a\u6240\u8d4b\u4e88\u7684\u89d2\u8272\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u901a\u5e38\u4f1a\u88ab\u5b8f\u89c2\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u5ffd\u89c6\u3002\u51ef\u6069\u65af\u628a\u5b83\u4eec\u79f0\u4f5c\u201c\u52a8\u7269\u7cbe\u795e\u201d(animal spirits)\uff0c\u8ba4\u4e3a\u8fd9\u79cd\u7cbe\u795e\u5728\u51b3\u5b9a\u4eba\u4eec\u662f\u5426\u613f\u610f\u5192\u9669\u65b9\u9762\u5c24\u4e3a\u91cd\u8981\u3002\u4ed6\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u5546\u4eba\u7684\u7b97\u76d8\u662f\u9760\u4e0d\u4f4f\u7684\uff1a\u201c\u6211\u4eec\u7528\u4e8e\u4f30\u8ba1\u4e00\u6761\u94c1\u8def\u3001\u4e00\u5ea7\u94dc\u77ff\u3001\u4e00\u5bb6\u7eba\u7ec7\u5382\u3001\u4e00\u79cd\u4e13\u5229\u836f\u7684\u5546\u8a89\u3001\u4e00\u8258\u5927\u897f\u6d0b\u90ae\u8f6e\u6216\u4f26\u6566\u91d1\u878d\u57ce\u5185\u4e00\u5e62\u5efa\u7b5110\u5e74\u540e\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u7684\u77e5\u8bc6\u57fa\u7840\uff0c\u6ca1\u591a\u5927\u610f\u4e49\uff0c\u6709\u65f6\u6beb\u65e0\u610f\u4e49\u3002\u201d\u5c3d\u7ba1\u5982\u6b64\uff0c\u4eba\u4eec\u8fd8\u662f\u4f1a\u8bbe\u6cd5\u505a\u51b3\u5b9a\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u4ed8\u8bf8\u884c\u52a8\u3002\u8fd9\u201c\u53ea\u80fd\u88ab\u7406\u89e3\u4e3a\u662f\u52a8\u7269\u7cbe\u795e\u4f7f\u7136\u201d\u3002\u4eba\u4eec\u6709\u201c\u60f3\u91c7\u53d6\u884c\u52a8\u7684\u5185\u5728\u51b2\u52a8\u201d\u3002<\/p>\n \u6709\u4e9b\u65f6\u671f\uff0c\u4eba\u4eec\u683c\u5916\u559c\u7231\u5192\u9669\u2014\u2014\u7684\u786e\uff0c\u662f\u592a\u8fc7\u4e8e\u5192\u9669\u3002\u76f2\u76ee\u76f8\u4fe1\u672a\u6765\u548c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u673a\u6784\uff0c\u52a9\u957f\u4e86\u4ed6\u4eec\u5728\u8fd9\u4e9b\u65f6\u671f\u7684\u5192\u9669\u884c\u4e3a\u3002\u8fd9\u5c31\u662f\u5546\u4e1a\u5468\u671f\u7684\u4e0a\u884c\u533a\u95f4\u3002\u4f46\u8ddf\u7740\uff0c\u52a8\u7269\u7cbe\u795e\u4e5f\u4f1a\u8f6c\u5411\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u65b9\u5411\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u4eba\u4eec\u5c31\u4f1a\u8fc7\u4e8e\u8c28\u614e\u3002<\/p>\n \u4e54\u6cbb\u2022\u963f\u514b\u52b3\u592b(George Akerlof)\u548c\u6211\u5728\u300a\u52a8\u7269\u7cbe\u795e\u300b\uff08Animal Spirits\uff0c\u666e\u6797\u65af\u987f2009\u5e74\u51fa\u7248\uff09\u4e00\u4e66\u4e2d\uff0c\u62d3\u5c55\u4e86\u51ef\u6069\u65af\u7684\u601d\u60f3\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u5c06\u5b83\u4e0e\u6709\u5173\u884c\u4e3a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u548c\u5fc3\u7406\u5b66\u7684\u73b0\u4ee3\u6587\u732e\u8054\u7cfb\u4e86\u8d77\u6765\u3002\u5982\u4eca\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u5bf9\u52a8\u7269\u7cbe\u795e\u7684\u5fc3\u7406\u5b66\u652f\u67f1\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a\u66f4\u4e3a\u6e05\u6670\u7684\u8ba4\u8bc6\u3002<\/p>\n \u201c\u6545\u4e8b\u201d\u63a8\u52a8\u7740\u4eba\u7c7b\u884c\u4e3a<\/p>\n \u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u793e\u4f1a\u5b66\u5bb6\u2014\u2014\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u7f57\u6770\u2022\u5c1a\u514b(Roger Schank)\u548c\u7f57\u4f2f\u7279\u2022\u57c3\u5e03\u5c14\u68ee(Robert Abelson)\u5c55\u793a\u4e86\uff0c\u6545\u4e8b\u548c\u8bb2\u6545\u4e8b\uff08\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u4eba\u60c5\u5473\u7684\u6545\u4e8b\uff09\u5728\u591a\u5927\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0a\u63a8\u52a8\u4e86\u8bf8\u591a\u7684\u4eba\u7c7b\u884c\u4e3a\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6545\u4e8b\u6bd4\u62bd\u8c61\u7684\u8ba1\u7b97\u8981\u91cd\u8981\u5f97\u591a\u3002\u4eba\u4eec\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u60c5\u7eea\uff0c\u5f88\u5927\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0a\u90fd\u662f\u57fa\u4e8e\u4eba\u4eec\u81ea\u5df1\u544a\u8bc9\u81ea\u5df1\u548c\u76f8\u4e92\u544a\u8bc9\u7684\u5173\u4e8e\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7684\u6545\u4e8b\u3002<\/p>\n 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Nations)\u4e00\u4e66\u7684\u6807\u51c6\u201c\u7ecf\u5178\u201d\u7406\u8bba\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u57fa\u672c\u4e0a\u662f\u7a33\u5b9a\u7684\u3002\u5982\u679c\u4eba\u4eec\u5728\u81ea\u7531\u5e02\u573a\u4e0a\u7406\u6027\u5730\u8ffd\u9010\u81ea\u8eab\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5229\u76ca\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u5c31\u4f1a\u7528\u5c3d\u6240\u6709\u751f\u4ea7\u5546\u54c1\u4ee5\u53ca\u4e0e\u5176\u4ed6\u4eba\u4ea4\u6362\u5546\u54c1\u7684\u4e92\u60e0\u673a\u4f1a\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u7528\u5c3d\u4e92\u60e0\u8d38\u6613\u673a\u4f1a\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\uff0c\u5c06\u4f1a\u5e26\u6765\u5145\u5206\u5c31\u4e1a\u3002\u6839\u636e\u8be5\u7406\u8bba\uff0c\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u6709\u5176\u5b83\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u51fa\u73b0\u3002<\/p>\n 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\u4ece\u8d44\u672c\u4e3b\u4e49\u793e\u4f1a\u7684\u8868\u73b0\u4ee5\u53ca\u5bfc\u81f4\u5176\u53d1\u751f\u5371\u673a\u7684\u6839\u6e90\u770b\uff0c\u653e\u4efb\u81ea\u7531\u3001\u4e0d\u53d7\u76d1\u7ba1\u7684\u8d44\u672c\u4e3b\u4e49\u603b\u80fd\u4ea7\u751f\u597d\u7ed3\u679c\u7684\u601d\u60f3\uff0c\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u9519\u8bef\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7406\u8bba\u3002\u8fd9\u4e00\u9519\u8bef\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7406\u8bba\u6ca1\u6709\u8003\u8651\u5230\u52a8\u7269\u7cbe\u795e\u662f\u5982\u4f55\u5f71\u54cd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u884c\u4e3a\u7684\u3002\u5b83\u6ca1\u6709\u8003\u8651\u5230\u4fe1\u5fc3\u3001\u6545\u4e8b\u4ee5\u53ca\u4e07\u91d1\u6cb9\u5bf9\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6ce2\u52a8\u4ea7\u751f\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u3002<\/p>\n \u672c\u6587\u4f5c\u8005\u662f\u8036\u9c81\u5927\u5b66(Yale University)\u963f\u745f\u2022\u5965\u80af(Arthur M. Okun)\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u6559\u6388\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u662fMacroMarkets\u7684\u8054\u5408\u521b\u529e\u4eba\u517c\u9996\u5e2d\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6<\/p>\n \u6b32\u52a0\u5165\u8fa9\u8bba\uff0c\u8bf7\u767b\u9646www.ft.com\/capitalismblog<\/p>\n \u8bd1\u8005\/\u8463\u7434<\/p>\n http:\/\/www.ftchinese.com\/story.php?storyid=001025162&page=1<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" \u8fd1\u5e74\u6765\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u63a5\u8fde\u770b\u5230\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u6545\u4e8b\u4e0a\u6f14\u548c\u6d88\u5931\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u9996\u5148\u770b\u89c1\u7684\u662f\u7f51\u7edc\u6ce1\u6cab\u548c\u4ee4\u4eba\u7fa1\u6155\u7684\u5e74\u8f7b\u767e\u4e07\u5bcc\u7fc1\u7684\u6545\u4e8b\u3002\u5b83\u4e8e2000\u5e74\u7834\u706d\uff0c\u4f46\u5f88\u5feb\u5c31\u88ab\u53e6\u4e00\u573a\u6ce1\u6cab\u63a5\u66ff\uff0c\u6d89\u53ca\u806a\u660e\u7684\u201c\u5012\u817e\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u7684\u4eba\u201d\u3002\u6b64\u6b21\u72c2\u70ed\u4e0d\u4ec5\u4ec5\u662f\u5173\u4e8e\u4eba\u7684\u6545\u4e8b\u7684\u4ea7\u7269\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u8fd8\u662f\u5173\u4e8e\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5982\u4f55\u8fd0\u884c\u7684\u6545\u4e8b\u7684\u4ea7\u7269\u3002\u662f\u4ec0\u4e48\u8ba9\u8fd9\u79cd\u72c2\u70ed\u548c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6545\u4e8b\u6301\u7eed\u4e86\u8fd9\u4e48\u4e45\uff1f\u6211\u4eec\u4e4b\u6240\u4ee5\u9677…
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